ArticlePloS one2014
Mortality attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza, Australia, 2003 to 2009, using a novel time series smoothing approach.
Article in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Heterogeneity in Estimates of the Impact of Influenza on Population Mortality: A Systematic Review.American journal of epidemiology · 2018Pooled it
- Excess Respiratory Hospitalisations Associated with Influenza, Respiratory Syncytial Virus and SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore from 2015 to 2023.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2025Article
- Influenza Activity and Preterm Birth in the Atlanta Metropolitan Area: A Time-Series Analysis from 2010 to 2017.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2025Article
- Estimating the burden of influenza-attributable severe acute respiratory infections on the hospital system in Metropolitan France, 2012-2018.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Modelled estimates of hospitalisations attributable to respiratory syncytial virus and influenza in Australia, 2009-2017.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2022Article
- Evolutionary Dynamics of Whole-Genome Influenza A/H3N2 Viruses Isolated in Myanmar from 2015 to 2019.Viruses · 2022Article
- All-cause versus cause-specific excess deaths for estimating influenza-associated mortality in Denmark, Spain, and the United States.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2022Article
- Excess Invasive Meningococcal Disease Associated With Seasonal Influenza, South Africa, 2003-2018.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022Article
- Trends in Excess Winter Mortality (EWM) from 1900/01 to 2019/20-Evidence for a Complex System of Multiple Long-Term Trends.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Modelling the influenza disease burden in people aged 50-64 and ≥65 years in Australia.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2022Article
- Effects of Air Pollution and Other Environmental Exposures on Estimates of Severe Influenza Illness, Washington, USA.Emerging infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Estimated hospitalisations attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza in Australia: 2001- 2013.PloS one · 2020Article
- Whole Genome Sequencing of A(H3N2) Influenza Viruses Reveals Variants Associated with Severity during the 2016⁻2017 Season.Viruses · 2019Article
- [Mortality attributable to influenza in pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods in Argentina: an ecological study (2002-2016)Mortalidade atribuível à gripe no período pré-vacinal e pós-vacinal na Argentina: estudo ecológico (2002-2016)].Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health · 2019Article
- The impact of influenza infection on young children, their family and the health care system.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2019Article
- Pandemic 2009 influenza A (H1N1)-associated deaths among children in China: A retrospective analysis.Pediatric investigation · 2018Article
- Estimates of global seasonal influenza-associated respiratory mortality: a modelling study.Lancet (London, England) · 2018Article
- In- and Out-of-hospital Mortality Associated with Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus in South Africa, 2009-2013.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2018Article
- Influenza-associated mortality in South Africa, 2009-2013: The importance of choices related to influenza infection proxies.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2018Article
- Burden of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and other respiratory viruses and the completeness of respiratory viral identification among respiratory inpatients, Canada, 2003-2014.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2018Article
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4 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundOfficial statistics under-estimate influenza deaths. Time series methods allow the estimation of influenza-attributable mortality. The methods often model background, non-influenza mortality using a cyclic, harmonic regression model based on the Serfling approach. This approach assumes that the seasonal pattern of non-influenza mortality is the same each year, which may not always be accurate.
aimTo estimate Australian seasonal and pandemic influenza-attributable mortality from 2003 to 2009, and to assess a more flexible influenza mortality estimation approach.
methodsWe used a semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) to replace the conventional seasonal harmonic terms with a smoothing spline of time ('spline model') to estimate influenza-attributable respiratory, respiratory and circulatory, and all-cause mortality in persons aged <65 and ≥ 65 years. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, seasonal influenza A and B virus laboratory detection time series were used as independent variables. Model fit and estimates were compared with those of a harmonic model.
resultsCompared with the harmonic model, the spline model improved model fit by up to 20%. In <65 year-olds, the estimated respiratory mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 0.5 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.3, 0.7) per 100,000; similar to that of the years with the highest seasonal influenza A mortality, 2003 and 2007 (A/H3N2 years). In ≥ 65 year-olds, the highest annual seasonal influenza A mortality estimate was 25.8 (95% CI 22.2, 29.5) per 100,000 in 2003, five-fold higher than the non-statistically significant 2009 pandemic influenza estimate in that age group. Seasonal influenza B mortality estimates were negligible.
conclusionsThe spline model achieved a better model fit. The study provides additional evidence that seasonal influenza, particularly A/H3N2, remains an important cause of mortality in Australia and that the epidemic of pandemic influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 virus in 2009 did not result in mortality greater than seasonal A/H3N2 influenza mortality, even in younger age groups.
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