Evidence map›Paper›PMID 23745605›Full record

ArticleInfluenza and other respiratory viruses2013

Counting pandemic deaths: comparing reported numbers of deaths from influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 with estimated excess mortality.

Jon Michael Gran, Oliver Kacelnik, Andrei M Grjibovski, Preben Aavitsland, Bjørn G Iversen

Abstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
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  5. Burden of medically attended influenza in Norway 2008-2017.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2019
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Jon Michael GranDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway; Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
Oliver Kacelnik
Andrei M Grjibovski
Preben Aavitsland
Bjørn G Iversen

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDuring the wave 1 of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, Norway appeared to be suffering from high mortality rates. However, by the end of the pandemic, it was widely reported that the number of deaths were much lower than previous years.

objectivesThe mortality burden from influenza is often assessed by two different approaches: counting influenza-certified deaths and estimating the mortality burden using models. The purpose of this study is to compare the number of reported deaths with results from two different models for estimating excess mortality during the pandemic in Norway. Additionally, mortality estimates for the pandemic season are compared with non-pandemic influenza seasons.

methodsNumbers on reported influenza A(N1h1)pdm09 deaths are gived by the Cause of Death Registry at Statistics Norway and an ad hoc registry at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. Overall and Pnemumonia and Influenza certified mortality is modeled using Poission regression, adjusting for levels of reported influenza-like illness and seasonal and year-to-year variation. RESULTS AND

conclusionsModelling results suggest that the excess mortality in older age groups is considerably lower during the pandemic than non-pandemic seasons, but there are indications of an excess beyond what was reported during the pandemic. This highlights the benefits of both methods and the importance of explaining where these numbers come from.

Indexed as

MortalityPandemicsAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChildChild, PreschoolFemaleHumansInfantInfant, NewbornInfluenza A Virus, H1N1 SubtypeInfluenza, HumanMaleMiddle AgedA(H1N1)pdm09excess mortalityinfluenzamodellingpandemicreporting

Identifiers

PMID23745605
PMCPMC4634244

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.