Evidence map›Paper›PMID 23737081›Full record

ArticleLifetime data analysis2014

Calibrated predictions for multivariate competing risks models.

Malka Gorfine, Li Hsu, David M Zucker, Giovanni Parmigiani

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Lifetime data analysis, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
0.5field-weighted citation impact, top 27% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 14 citations in OpenAlex.

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  9. Frailty Models for Familial Risk with Application to Breast Cancer.Journal of the American Statistical Association · 2013
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Malka GorfineFaculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Technion City, 32000 , Haifa, Israel, gorfinm@ie.technion.ac.il.
Li Hsu
David M Zucker
Giovanni Parmigiani
Dana-Farber Cancer Institute · USFred Hutch Cancer Center · USHebrew University of Jerusalem · ILTechnion – Israel Institute of Technology · IL

Funding

VectorP30CA006516 · NCI · DANA-FARBER CANCER INSTITUTE · PI A. Heather Eliassen · 1985 to 2026
$330.6M
Use of Biomarkers in Diagnosis, Prognosis, Risk Prediction and Early Detection ofP01CA053996 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI HSU, LI · 1991 to 2015
$9.4M
Statistical Methods in Genetic EpidemiologyR01AG014358 · NIA · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI HSU, LI · 2002 to 2013
$2.4M
NCI NIH HHS 5P30 CA006516-46NCI NIH HHS P01 CA053996NCI NIH HHS P01 CA53996NCI NIH HHS P30 CA006516NIA NIH HHS R01 AG014358NIA NIH HHS R01AG14358
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Prediction models for time-to-event data play a prominent role in assessing the individual risk of a disease, such as cancer. Accurate disease prediction models provide an efficient tool for identifying individuals at high risk, and provide the groundwork for estimating the population burden and cost of disease and for developing patient care guidelines. We focus on risk prediction of a disease in which family history is an important risk factor that reflects inherited genetic susceptibility, shared environment, and common behavior patterns. In this work family history is accommodated using frailty models, with the main novel feature being allowing for competing risks, such as other diseases or mortality. We show through a simulation study that naively treating competing risks as independent right censoring events results in non-calibrated predictions, with the expected number of events overestimated. Discrimination performance is not affected by ignoring competing risks. Our proposed prediction methodologies correctly account for competing events, are very well calibrated, and easy to implement.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalRiskFemaleHumansKaplan-Meier EstimateMaleMultivariate AnalysisNeoplasmsProportional Hazards Models

Identifiers

PMID23737081
PMCPMC3884047
OpenAlexW2168426737

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.