ArticleInternal and emergency medicine2013
The aging population and future demand for emergency ambulances in Japan.
Article in Internal and emergency medicine, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed.
- Forecasting and Capacity Planning in Prehospital Emergency Medical Services: The Case of Ankara.The International journal of health planning and management · 2026Article
- New and emerging drivers of ambulance demand.BMC emergency medicine · 2026Article
- Strengthening the WHO Emergency Care Systems Framework: insights from an integrated, patient-centered approach in the Copenhagen Emergency Medical Services system-a qualitative system analysis.BMC health services research · 2025Article
- Bathing-related accidents requiring ambulance dispatches in relation to age and ambient temperature in Nagoya, Japan: differences between detached houses and apartment buildings.Environmental health and preventive medicine · 2025Article
- Racing against time: Emergency ambulance dispatches and response times, a register-based study in Region Zealand, Denmark, 2013-2022.Scandinavian journal of trauma, resuscitation and emergency medicine · 2024Article
- Characteristics of consecutive versus non-consecutive frequent emergency medical services transport to a single emergency department.PloS one · 2024Article
- Trends and Characteristics of Emergency Medical Services in Italy: A 5-Years Population-Based Registry Analysis.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2020Article
- A systematic literature review of simulation models for non-technical skill training in healthcare logistics.Advances in simulation (London, England) · 2018Article
- Predicting Urban Medical Services Demand in China: An Improved Grey Markov Chain Model by Taylor Approximation.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2017Article
- Spatiotemporal variations of extreme low temperature for emergency transport: a nationwide observational study.International journal of biometeorology · 2017Observational
- Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest risk attributable to temperature in Japan.Scientific reports · 2017Observational
- All-Cause and Cause-Specific Risk of Emergency Transport Attributable to Temperature: A Nationwide Study.Medicine · 2015Observational
- Coarse particulate matter and emergency ambulance dispatches in Fukuoka, Japan: a time-stratified case-crossover study.Environmental health and preventive medicine · 2015Article
- Prognostic factors in emergency patients aged 90 years and older.Acute medicine & surgery · 2014Article
- Potentially inappropriate medications at admission among elderly patients transported to a tertiary emergency medical institution in Japan.Acute medicine & surgeryArticle
- The demographic impact on the demand for emergency medical services in the urban and rural regions of Bavaria, 2012-2032.Zeitschrift fur Gesundheitswissenschaften = Journal of public healthArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Demand for emergency ambulances has been increasing in developmentally advanced countries, and in Japan demand has been increasing due to the aging population since 2008, when the total population began to decrease. However, we do not know how acceleration of the aging population relates to the demand for emergency ambulances. Thus, we estimated future demand for emergency ambulances in Japan. A regression with autocorrelated errors model was used to estimate future demand for emergency ambulance dispatches and emergency transports. In the estimation, data on emergency ambulance dispatches, emergency transports, and population data from 1963 to 2011, and an estimate of the population of Japan from 2012 to 2025 were used. The number of emergency ambulance dispatches has increased since 2008, and it is expected to continue to increase until around 2023 or 2024, when it will reach a peak of ~6.2 million per year. Similarly, the number of emergency transports is expected to continue to increase until 2022 or 2023, when it will reach a peak of ~5.3 million per year. Although we need to be careful when evaluating numbers predicted for the remote future due to methodological limitations, the findings might be useful for updating emergency medical care systems to prepare for future increases in demand.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.