ArticleDrug and alcohol dependence2013
HIV transmission from drug injectors to partners who do not inject, and beyond: modelling the potential for a generalized heterosexual epidemic in St. Petersburg, Russia.
Article in Drug and alcohol dependence, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 22 citations in OpenAlex.
- A Review of Network Models for HIV Spread.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2025Pooled it
- HERMITAGE--a randomized controlled trial to reduce sexually transmitted infections and HIV risk behaviors among HIV-infected Russian drinkers.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2015Trial
- The influence of depressive symptoms on alcohol use among HIV-infected Russian drinkers.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2014Trial
- Costs and impact on HIV transmission of a switch from a criminalisation to a public health approach to injecting drug use in eastern Europe and central Asia: a modelling analysis.The lancet. HIV · 2022Article
- A review of network simulation models of hepatitis C virus and HIV among people who inject drugs.The International journal on drug policy · 2021Review
- Article
- Stigmatization of people who inject drugs (PWID) by pharmacists in Tajikistan: sociocultural context and implications for a pharmacy-based prevention approach.Harm reduction journal · 2017Article
- Internalized HIV and Drug Stigmas: Interacting Forces Threatening Health Status and Health Service Utilization Among People with HIV Who Inject Drugs in St. Petersburg, Russia.AIDS and behavior · 2016Article
- Design and baseline findings of a large-scale rapid response to an HIV outbreak in people who inject drugs in Athens, Greece: the ARISTOTLE programme.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2015Article
- Two Independent HIV Epidemics in Saint Petersburg, Russia Revealed by Molecular Epidemiology.AIDS research and human retroviruses · 2015Article
- Do metropolitan HIV epidemic histories and programs for people who inject drugs and men who have sex with men predict AIDS incidence and mortality among heterosexuals?Annals of epidemiology · 2014Article
- HIV prevalence and related risk behaviours among female partners of male injecting drugs users in Iran: results of a bio-behavioural survey, 2010.Sexually transmitted infections · 2013Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundHIV infection is prevalent among drug injectors in St. Petersburg and their non-injecting heterosexual partners (PIDUs). There are fears that sexual transmission of HIV from IDUs to PIDUs may portend a self-sustaining, heterosexual epidemic in Russia.
methodsOur model combines a network model of sexual partnerships of IDUs and non-IDUs to represent sexual transmission of HIV and a deterministic model for parenteral transmission among IDUs. Behavioural parameters were obtained from a survey of St. Petersburg IDUs and their sexual partners. We based our model fits on two scenarios for PIDU prevalence in 2006 (5.6% and 15.1%, calculated excluding and including HCV co-infected PIDUs respectively) and compared predictions for the general population HIV prevalence.
resultsResults indicate that sexual transmission could sustain a non-IDU HIV epidemic. The model indicates that general population prevalence may be greater than current estimates imply. Parenteral transmission drives the epidemic and the PIDU bridge population plays a crucial role transferring infection to non-IDUs. The model indicates that the high PIDU prevalence is improbable because of the high risk behaviour this implies; the lower prevalence is possible.
conclusionThe model implies that transmission through PIDUs will sustain a heterosexual epidemic, if prevalence among IDUs and PIDUs is as high as survey data suggest. We postulate that current estimates of population prevalence underestimate the extent of the HIV epidemic because they are based on the number of registered cases only. Curtailing transmission among injectors and PIDUs will be vital in controlling heterosexual transmission.
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