ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2013
Modelling seasonal influenza: the role of weather and punctuated antigenic drift.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers.
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Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed.
- Resurgence of large-scale influenza A (H1N1) outbreaks: Modeling the interplay of transmission, loss of immunity, and vaccination.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- The pitfalls of incidence-based time series regression for inferring the effects of weather on infectious diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- The limitations of non-mechanistic methods for characterizing pathogen-pathogen interactions: A simulation study.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Links between influenza epidemics, weather characteristics and all-cause mortality in the Czech Republic, 1982-2020.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Estimation of under-reporting influenza cases in Hong Kong based on bayesian hierarchical framework.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- The effects of weather and mobility on respiratory viruses dynamics before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA and Canada.PLOS digital health · 2023Article
- A discrete-time susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible model for the analysis of influenza data.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Mechanisms for the circulation of influenza A(H3N2) in China: A spatiotemporal modelling study.PLoS pathogens · 2022Article
- Antigenic drift and epidemiological severity of seasonal influenza in Canada.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Mutation induced infection waves in diseases like COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Mitigating bias in estimating epidemic severity due to heterogeneity of epidemic onset and data aggregation.Annals of epidemiology · 2022Article
- Impact of biometeorological conditions and air pollution on influenza-like illnesses incidence in Warsaw.International journal of biometeorology · 2021Article
- Respiratory Co-Infections: Modulators of SARS-CoV-2 Patients' Clinical Sub-Phenotype.Frontiers in microbiology · 2021Article
- The relationship between cyclonic weather regimes and seasonal influenza over the Eastern Mediterranean.The Science of the total environment · 2021Article
- Dynamic interactions of influenza viruses in Hong Kong during 1998-2018.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Article
- Genome-wide characterization of the seasonal H3N2 virus in Shanghai reveals natural temperature-sensitive strains conferred by the I668V mutation in the PA subunit.Emerging microbes & infections · 2018Article
- A switching model for the impact of toxins on the spread of infectious diseases.Journal of mathematical biology · 2018Article
- Accounting for non-stationarity in epidemiology by embedding time-varying parameters in stochastic models.PLoS computational biology · 2018Article
- The use of ambient humidity conditions to improve influenza forecast.PLoS computational biology · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Seasonal influenza appears as annual oscillations in temperate regions of the world, yet little is known as to what drives these annual outbreaks and what factors are responsible for their inter-annual variability. Recent studies suggest that weather variables, such as absolute humidity, are the key drivers of annual influenza outbreaks. The rapid, punctuated, antigenic evolution of the influenza virus is another major factor. We present a new framework for modelling seasonal influenza based on a discrete-time, age-of-infection, epidemic model, which allows the calculation of the model's likelihood function in closed form. This framework may be used to perform model inference and parameter estimation rigorously. The modelling approach allows us to fit 11 years of Israeli influenza data, with the best models fitting the data with unusually high correlations in which r > 0.9. We show that using actual weather to modulate influenza transmission rate gives better results than using the inter-annual means of the weather variables, providing strong support for the role of weather in shaping the dynamics of influenza. This conclusion remains valid even when incorporating a more realistic depiction of the decay of immunity at the population level, which allows for discrete changes in immunity from year to year.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.