ArticleAIDS (London, England)2013
Dramatic increase in HIV prevalence after scale-up of antiretroviral treatment.
Article in AIDS (London, England), 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT02626351 (Optimizing the Delivery of Maternal and Child Health Services to Strengthen the Primary Health Care System in Rural South Africa), which is not on this map. Cited by 110 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Optimizing the Delivery of Maternal and Child Health Services to Strengthen the Primary Health Care System in Rural South Africa
Who cites it
110 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Interventions addressing the adolescent HIV continuum of care in South Africa: a systematic review and modified Delphi analysis.BMJ open · 2022Pooled it
- Behavioral and cognitive interventions to improve treatment adherence and access to HIV care among older adults in sub-Saharan Africa: an updated systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2018Pooled it
- How informal healthcare providers improve uptake of HIV testing: qualitative results from a randomized controlled trial.AIDS (London, England) · 2022Trial
- The impact of population dynamics on the population HIV care cascade: results from the ANRS 12249 Treatment as Prevention trial in rural KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa).Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2018Trial
- Trial
- Impact of Point-of-Care Xpert MTB/RIF on Tuberculosis Treatment Initiation. A Cluster-randomized Trial.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2017Trial
- Access to HIV care in the context of universal test and treat: challenges within the ANRS 12249 TasP cluster-randomized trial in rural South Africa.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2016Trial
- Evaluating the biomedical and behavioral drivers of HIV incidence decline in adolescent girls and young women in Uganda: A mathematical modeling study.PLoS medicine · 2026Article
- The impact of HIV on cervical cancer elimination in KwaZulu-Natal: a comparative modeling analysis.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2026Article
- Drug and therapeutic intravaginal delivery targeting diseases in the female reproductive tract: A mathematical modeling perspective.Journal of controlled release : official journal of the Controlled Release Society · 2025Review
- The urgent need for newer drugs in routine HIV treatment in Africa: the case of Ghana.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Review
- Understanding Household Dynamics From the Ground Up: A Longitudinal Study From a Rural South African Setting.Demography · 2024Article
- Tuberculin skin test surveys and the Annual Risk of Tuberculous Infection in school children in Northern KwaZulu-Natal.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- 'A difficult conversation': community stakeholders' and key informants' perceptions of the barriers to talking about sex and HIV with adolescents and young people in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.Culture, health & sexuality · 2023Article
- Temporal trend analysis of the HIV/AIDS burden before and after the implementation of antiretroviral therapy at the population level from 1990 to 2020 in Ghana.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Protocol: evaluation of an optimised couples-focused intervention to increase testing for HIV in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, the Igugu Lethu ('Our treasure') cohort study.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Predictors of migration in an HIV hyper-endemic rural South African community: evidence from a population-based cohort (2005-2017).BMC public health · 2022Article
- CD4+ T-Cell Count at Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation in the "Treat-All" Era in Rural South Africa: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022Article
- Estimating age specific prevalence and force of infection in Zimbabwe using combined cross-sectional surveys from 2005 to 2015.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2022Article
- Understanding older peoples' chronic disease self-management practices and challenges in the context of grandchildren caregiving: A qualitative study in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
50 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesTo investigate HIV prevalence trends in a rural South African community after the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) in 2004.
methodsWe estimated adult HIV prevalence (ages 15-49 years) using data from a large, longitudinal, population-based HIV surveillance in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, over the period from 2004 (the year when the public-sector ART scale-up started) to 2011. We control for selection effects due to surveillance nonparticipation using multiple imputation. We further linked the surveillance data to patient records from the local HIV treatment program to estimate ART coverage.
resultsART coverage of all HIV-infected people in this community increased from 0% in 2004 to 31% in 2011. Over the same observation period adult HIV prevalence increased steadily from 21 to 29%. The change in overall HIV prevalence is nearly completely explained by an increase of HIV-infected people receiving ART, and it is largely driven by increases in HIV prevalence in women and men older than 24 years.
conclusionThe observed dramatic increase in adult HIV prevalence can most likely be explained by increased survival of HIV-infected people due to ART. Future studies should decompose HIV prevalence trends into HIV incidence and HIV-specific mortality changes to further improve the causal attribution of prevalence increases to treatment success rather than prevention failure.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.