ArticleTheoretical biology & medical modelling2013
How to interpret the transmissibility of novel influenza A(H7N9): an analysis of initial epidemiological data of human cases from China.
Article in Theoretical biology & medical modelling, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Virus-induced pathogenesis, vaccine development, and diagnosis of novel H7N9 avian influenza A virus in humans: a systemic literature review.The Journal of international medical research · 2020Pooled it
- Bayesian phylodynamics reveals the transmission dynamics of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus at the human-live bird market interface in China.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Effect of a wet market on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in China, 2019-2020.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2020Article
- Article
- Molecular Detection of Avian Infectious Bronchitis Viruses in Live Bird Markets, Gilan Province.Archives of Razi Institute · 2020Article
- Estimating Transmission Potential of H5N1 Viruses Among Humans in Egypt Using Phylogeny, Genetic Distance and Sampling Time Interval.Frontiers in microbiology · 2019Article
- Comparison of methods to Estimate Basic Reproduction Number (Journal of research in medical sciences : the official journal of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences · 2019Article
- A pilot study on primary cultures of human respiratory tract epithelial cells to predict patients' responses to H7N9 infection.Oncotarget · 2018Article
- Spatio-temporal pattern analysis for evaluation of the spread of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China, 2013-2014.BMC infectious diseases · 2017Article
- The transmissibility of noroviruses: Statistical modeling of outbreak events with known route of transmission in Japan.PloS one · 2017Article
- Interpreting the transmissibility of the avian influenza A(H7N9) infection from 2013 to 2015 in Zhejiang Province, China.Epidemiology and infection · 2016Article
- A Predictive Risk Model for A(H7N9) Human Infections Based on Spatial-Temporal Autocorrelation and Risk Factors: China, 2013-2014.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2015Article
- The pandemic potential of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus: a review.Epidemiology and infection · 2015Review
- Emerging viral respiratory tract infections--environmental risk factors and transmission.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2014Review
- Probabilistic differential diagnosis of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) using the time from immigration to illness onset among imported cases.Journal of theoretical biology · 2014Article
- Quantification of bird-to-bird and bird-to-human infections during 2013 novel H7N9 avian influenza outbreak in China.PloS one · 2014Article
- Dynamics of a new strain of the H1N1 influenza A virus incorporating the effects of repetitive contacts.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2014Article
- Transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9, February to May 2013, China.BMC medicine · 2013Article
- Human H7N9 avian influenza virus infection: a review and pandemic risk assessment.Emerging microbes & infections · 2013Review
- Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling: ensuring continued growth and future leadership.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2013Article
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3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAs the human infections with novel influenza A(H7N9) virus have been reported from several different provinces in China, the pandemic potential of the virus has been questioned. The presence of human-to-human transmission has not been demonstrated, but the absence of demonstration does not guarantee that there is no such transmission.
methodsA mathematical model of cluster size distribution is devised without imposing an assumption of subcriticality of the reproduction number and accounting for right censoring of new clusters. The proportion of cases with a history of bird contact is analytically derived, permitting us to fit the model to the observed data of confirmed cases. Using contact history with bird among confirmed cases (n = 129), we estimate the reproduction number of the novel influenza A(H7N9) from human to human.
resultsAnalysing twenty confirmed cases with known exposure, the reproduction number for human-to-human transmission was estimated at 0.28 (95% CI: 0.11, 0.45). Sensitivity analysis indicated that the reproduction number is substantially below unity.
conclusionsIt is unlikely to observe an immediate pandemic of novel influenza A(H7N9) virus with human to human transmission. Continued monitoring of cases and animals would be the key to elucidate additional epidemiological characteristics of the virus.
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