ArticleCancer2013
Which strategies reduce breast cancer mortality most? Collaborative modeling of optimal screening, treatment, and obesity prevention.
Article in Cancer, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 41 citations in OpenAlex.
- Systematic Review of the Cost Effectiveness of Breast Cancer Prevention, Screening, and Treatment Interventions.Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology · 2020Pooled it
- Comparative image quality and dosimetric performance of two generations of dedicated breast CT systems.Medical physics · 2025Article
- Impact of endocrine therapy regimens for early-stage ER+/HER2-breast cancer on contralateral breast cancer risk.NPJ breast cancer · 2025Article
- Inclusion of the US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation for Mammography in State Comprehensive Cancer Control Plans in the US.JAMA network open · 2022Article
- Reflecting on 20 years of breast cancer modeling in CISNET: Recommendations for future cancer systems modeling efforts.PLoS computational biology · 2021Review
- Evaluating Parameter Uncertainty in a Simulation Model of Cancer Using Emulators.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2019Article
- The breast lesion excision system procedure: An optimal solution for the management of indeterminate BI-RADS category 3 breast lesions in women with severe anxiety.Saudi medical journal · 2018Article
- Contribution of Breast Cancer to Overall Mortality for US Women.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2018Article
- Introduction to the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Breast Cancer Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2018Article
- Simulating the Impact of Risk-Based Screening and Treatment on Breast Cancer Outcomes with MISCAN-Fadia.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2018Article
- Structure, Function, and Applications of the Georgetown-Einstein (GE) Breast Cancer Simulation Model.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2018Article
- Comparison of the diagnostic workup of women referred at non-blinded or blinded double reading in a population-based screening mammography programme in the south of the Netherlands.British journal of cancer · 2015Article
- Effect of treatment and mammography detection on breast cancer survival over time: 1990-2007.Cancer · 2015Article
- The contribution of mammography screening to breast cancer incidence trends in the United States: an updated age-period-cohort model.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundUS breast cancer mortality is declining, but thousands of women still die each year.
methodsTwo established simulation models examine 6 strategies that include increased screening and/or treatment or elimination of obesity versus continuation of current patterns. The models use common national data on incidence and obesity prevalence, competing causes of death, mammography characteristics, treatment effects, and survival/cure. Parameters are modified based on obesity (defined as BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2) ). Outcomes are presented for the year 2025 among women aged 25+ and include numbers of cases, deaths, mammograms and false-positives; age-adjusted incidence and mortality; breast cancer mortality reduction and deaths averted; and probability of dying of breast cancer.
resultsIf current patterns continue, the models project that there would be about 50,100-57,400 (range across models) annual breast cancer deaths in 2025. If 90% of women were screened annually from ages 40 to 54 and biennially from ages 55 to 99 (or death), then 5100-6100 fewer deaths would occur versus current patterns, but incidence, mammograms, and false-positives would increase. If all women received the indicated systemic treatment (with no screening change), then 11,400-14,500 more deaths would be averted versus current patterns, but increased toxicity could occur. If 100% received screening plus indicated therapy, there would be 18,100-20,400 fewer deaths. Eliminating obesity yields 3300-5700 fewer breast cancer deaths versus continuation of current obesity levels.
conclusionsMaximal reductions in breast cancer deaths could be achieved through optimizing treatment use, followed by increasing screening use and obesity prevention.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.