ArticleBMC public health2013
Forecast analysis of the incidence of tuberculosis in the province of Quebec.
Article in BMC public health, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Infectious diseases in Indigenous populations in North America: learning from the past to create a more equitable future.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2023Review
- Epidemiology and disease burden of tuberculosis in south of Tunisia over a 22-year period: Current trends and future projections.PloS one · 2019Article
- Development and validation of a predictive ecological model for TB prevalence.International journal of epidemiology · 2018Article
- Challenges of Achieving Tuberculosis Elimination by 2050: A Need for More Attention in the TB Control Program in Iran.Iranian journal of public health · 2017Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundWhile the overall population prevalence of tuberculosis in Quebec has been declining for many years, tuberculosis is still disproportionately more prevalent among the immigrant and Inuit communities. As such, the aim of this study was to forecast the incidence of tuberculosis in the Province of Quebec over time in order to examine the possible impact of future preventative and treatment programs geared to reducing such disparities.
methodsA compartmental differential equation based on a Susceptible Exposed Latent Infectious Recovered (SELIR) model was simulated using the Euler method using Visual Basic for Applications in Excel. Demographic parameters were obtained from census data for the Province of Quebec and the model was fitted to past epidemiological data to extrapolate future values over the period 2015 to 2030.
resultsThe trend of declining tuberculosis rates will continue in the general population, falling by 42% by 2030. The incidence among immigrants will decrease but never vanish, and may increase in the future. Among the Inuit, the incidence is expected to increase, reaching a maximum and then stabilizing, although if re-infection is taken into account it may continue to increase. Tuberculosis among non-indigenous Canadian born persons will continue to decline, with the disease almost eradicated in that group in the mid 21st century.
conclusionsWhile the incidence of tuberculosis in the Province of Quebec is expected to decrease overall, certain populations will remain at risk.
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