Mixed-effects modelling of scale growth profiles predicts the occurrence of early and late fish migrants.

Fish growth is commonly used as a proxy for fitness but this is only valid if individual growth variation can be interpreted in relation to conspecifics' performance. Unfortunately, assessing individual variation in growth rates is problematic under natural conditions because subjects typically need to be marked, repeated measurements of body size are difficult to obtain in the field, and recaptures may be limited to a few time events which will generally vary among individuals. The analysis of consecutive growth rings (circuli) found on scales and other hard structures offers an alternative to mark and recapture for examining individual growth variation in fish and other aquatic vertebrates where growth rings can be visualized, but accounting for autocorrelations and seasonal growth stanzas has proved challenging. Here we show how mixed-effects modelling of scale growth increments (inter-circuli spacing) can be used to reconstruct the growth trajectories of sea trout (Salmo trutta) and correctly classify 89% of individuals into early or late seaward migrants (smolts). Early migrants grew faster than late migrants during their first year of life in freshwater in two natural populations, suggesting that migration into the sea was triggered by ontogenetic (intrinsic) drivers, rather than by competition with conspecifics. Our study highlights the profound effects that early growth can have on age at migration of a paradigmatic fish migrant and illustrates how the analysis of inter-circuli spacing can be used to reconstruct the detailed growth of individuals when these cannot be marked or are only caught once.