Evidence map›Paper›PMID 23613891›Full record

ArticlePloS one2013

The validity of self-initiated, event-driven infectious disease reporting in general population cohorts.

Hanna Merk, Sharon Kühlmann-Berenzon, Christin Bexelius, Sven Sandin, Jan-Eric Litton, Annika Linde, Olof Nyrén

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.2field-weighted citation impact, top 20% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 14 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Hanna MerkDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Sharon Kühlmann-Berenzon
Christin Bexelius
Sven Sandin
Jan-Eric Litton
Annika Linde
Olof Nyrén
Karolinska Institutet · SESwedish Institute · SEVanderbilt University · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe 2009/2010 pandemic influenza highlighted the need for valid and timely incidence data. In 2007 we started the development of a passive surveillance scheme based on passive follow-up of representative general population cohorts. Cohort members are asked to spontaneously report all instances of colds and fevers as soon as they occur for up to 9 months. Suspecting that compliance might be poor, we aimed to assess the validity of self-initiated, event-driven outcome reporting over long periods.

methodsDuring two 8 week periods in 2008 and 2009, 2376 and 2514 cohort members in Stockholm County were sent one-week recall questionnaires, which served as reference method.

resultsThe questionnaires were completed by 88% and 86% of the cohort members. Whilst the false positive proportion (1-specificity) in the reporting was low (upper bound of the 95% confidence interval [CI] ≤ 2% in each season), the false negative proportion (failure to report, 1-sensitivity) was considerable (60% [95% CI 52%-67%] in each season). Still, the resulting epidemic curves for influenza-like illness compared well with those from existing General Practitioner-based sentinel surveillance in terms of shape, timing of peak, and year-to-year variation. This suggested that the error was fairly constant.

conclusionsPassive long-term surveillance through self-initiated, event-driven outcome reporting underestimates incidence rates of common upper respiratory tract infections. However, because underreporting appears predictable, simple corrections could potentially restore validity.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overBiasChildChild, PreschoolCohort StudiesDisease NotificationFalse Positive ReactionsHumansInfantInfant, NewbornInfluenza, HumanLogistic ModelsMiddle Aged

Identifiers

PMID23613891
PMCPMC3629155
OpenAlexW2058005700

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.