ArticleTobacco control2013
Large-scale unassisted smoking cessation over 50 years: lessons from history for endgame planning in tobacco control.
Article in Tobacco control, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Smokers Increasingly Motivated and Able to Quit as Smoking Prevalence Falls: Umbrella and Systematic Review of Evidence Relevant to the "Hardening Hypothesis," Considering Transcendence of Manufactured Doubt.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2022Pooled it
- Influence of Tobacco Use Patterns on Smoking Cessation Success in Adults Who Smoke Cigarettes in the U.S.AJPM focus · 2026Article
- Pharmaceuticalisation as the tobacco industry's endgame.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- Living under a cloud: Electronic cigarettes and the dental patient.Journal of the American Dental Association (1939) · 2020Article
- 'S'-shaped curve: modelling trends in smoking prevalence, uptake and cessation in Great Britain from 1973 to 2016.Thorax · 2019Article
- Impact of the WHO FCTC on non-cigarette tobacco products.Tobacco control · 2019Article
- Quit Methods Used by American Smokers, 2013-2014.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2017Article
- Quit Methods Used by US Adult Cigarette Smokers, 2014-2016.Preventing chronic disease · 2017Article
- A Risk-Continuum Categorization of Product Use Among US Youth Tobacco Users.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2016Article
- Analysis of the Paternalistic Justification of an Agenda Setting Public Health Policy: The Case of Tobacco Plain Packaging.Public health ethics · 2016Article
- Tobacco prevention policies in west-African countries and their effects on smoking prevalence.BMC public health · 2015Article
- Harm reduction at the crossroads: the case of e-cigarettes.American journal of preventive medicine · 2014Article
- CDC Grand Rounds: global tobacco control.MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report · 2014Article
- Article
- Self-guided Change: The most common form of long-term, maintained health behavior change.Health psychology openReview
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In the 50 years since the twentieth century's smoking epidemic began to decline from the beginning of the 1960s, hundreds of millions of smokers around the world have stopped smoking permanently. Overwhelmingly, most stopped without any formal assistance in the form of medication or professional assistance, including many millions of former heavy smokers. Nascent discussion about national and global tobacco endgame scenarios is dominated by an assumption that transitioning from cigarettes to alternative forms of potent, consumer-acceptable forms of nicotine will be essential to the success of endgames. This appears to uncritically assume (1) the hardening hypothesis: that as smoking prevalence moves toward and below 10%, the remaining smokers will be mostly deeply addicted, and will be largely unable to stop smoking unless they are able to move to other forms of 'clean' nicotine addiction such as e-cigarettes and more potent forms of nicotine replacement; and (2) an overly medicalised view of smoking cessation that sees unassisted cessation as both inefficient and inhumane. In this paper, we question these assumptions. We also note that some vanguard nations which continue to experience declining smoking prevalence have long banned smokeless tobacco and non-therapeutic forms of nicotine delivery. We argue that there are potentially risky consequences of unravelling such bans when history suggests that large-scale cessation is demonstrably possible.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.