ArticleMalaria journal2013
A mathematical model of the impact of present and future malaria vaccines.
Article in Malaria journal, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Agent-based models of malaria transmission: a systematic review.Malaria journal · 2018Pooled it
- The time-course of protection of the RTS,S vaccine against malaria infections and clinical disease.Malaria journal · 2015Trial
- The public health impact of malaria vaccine RTS,S in malaria endemic Africa: country-specific predictions using 18 month follow-up Phase III data and simulation models.BMC medicine · 2015Trial
- An age-structured mathematical model to assess the combined effects of vaccine and non-vaccine interventions on malaria transmission and burden.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- A Probabilistic Synthesis of Malaria Epidemiology: Exposure, Infection, Parasite Densities, and Detection.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Age-structured vaccination strategies in mathematical modeling of malaria transmission.Current research in parasitology & vector-borne diseases · 2025Article
- Unraveling the 'community effects' of interventions against malaria endemicity: a systematic scoping review.BMJ public health · 2024Article
- Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Insights from modelling malaria vaccines for policy decisions: the focus on RTS,S.Malaria journal · 2021Review
- Assessing the impact of low-technology emanators alongside long-lasting insecticidal nets to control malaria.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Cost-effectiveness and public health impact of RTS,S/AS01Wellcome open research · 2020Article
- malERA: An updated research agenda for combination interventions and modelling in malaria elimination and eradication.PLoS medicine · 2017Review
- Role of mass drug administration in elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria: a consensus modelling study.The Lancet. Global health · 2017Article
- The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015.Nature · 2015Article
- Defining the relationship between infection prevalence and clinical incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria.Nature communications · 2015Article
- Calibration of an intrahost malaria model and parameter ensemble evaluation of a pre-erythrocytic vaccine.Malaria journal · 2015Article
- Fun with maths: exploring implications of mathematical models for malaria eradication.Malaria journal · 2014Article
- How effective is integrated vector management against malaria and lymphatic filariasis where the diseases are transmitted by the same vector?PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2014Article
- Comparative assessment of diverse strategies for malaria vector population control based on measured rates at which mosquitoes utilize targeted resource subsets.Malaria journal · 2014Article
- Made-to-measure malaria vector control strategies: rational design based on insecticide properties and coverage of blood resources for mosquitoes.Malaria journal · 2014Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundWith the encouraging advent of new malaria vaccine candidates, mathematical modelling of expected impacts of present and future vaccines as part of multi-intervention strategies is especially relevant.
methodsThe impact of potential malaria vaccines is presented utilizing the EMOD model, a comprehensive model of the vector life cycle coupled to a detailed mechanistic representation of intra-host parasite and immune dynamics. Values of baseline transmission and vector feeding behaviour parameters are identified, for which local elimination is enabled by layering pre-erythrocytic vaccines of various efficacies on top of high and sustained insecticide-treated net coverage. The expected reduction in clinical cases is further explored in a scenario that targets children by adding a pre-erythrocytic vaccine to the EPI programme for newborns.
resultsAt high transmission, there is a minimal reduction in clinical disease cases, as the time to infection is only slightly delayed. At lower transmission, there is an accelerating community-level protection that has subtle dependences on heterogeneities in vector behaviour, ecology, and intervention coverage. At very low transmission, the trend reverses as many children are vaccinated to prevent few cases.
conclusionsThe maximum-impact setting is one in which the impact of increasing bed net coverage has saturated, vector feeding is primarily outdoors, and transmission is just above the threshold where small perturbations from a vaccine intervention result in large community benefits.
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