ArticlePloS one2013
The application of the grey disaster model to forecast epidemic peaks of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in China.
Article in PloS one, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Can infectious modelling be applicable globally - lessons from COVID 19.Current opinion in environmental science & health · 2022Review
- Short-term prediction of COVID-19 spread using grey rolling model optimized by particle swarm optimization.Applied soft computing · 2021Article
- An improved multi-variable grey model for forecasting China's finished products from comprehensive waste utilization.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2021Article
- A Prediction Method for Animal-Derived Drug Resistance Trend Using a Grey-BP Neural Network Combination Model.Antibiotics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Article
- The Rapid Assessment and Early Warning Models for COVID-19.Virologica Sinica · 2020Review
- Statistical Analysis and Prediction of Fatal Accidents in the Metallurgical Industry in China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Estimation of COVID-19 spread curves integrating global data and borrowing information.PloS one · 2020Article
- Article
- A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination.Vaccine · 2015Review
- Application of a hybrid method combining grey model and back propagation artificial neural networks to forecast hepatitis B in china.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2015Article
- Article
- Forecasting in humanitarian operations: Literature review and research needs.International journal of forecastingArticle
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveThe objectives of this study were to forecast epidemic peaks of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in China using the grey disaster model, to evaluate its feasibility of predicting the epidemic tendency of notifiable diseases.
methodsAccording to epidemiological features, the GM(1,1) model and DGM model were used to build the grey disaster model based on the incidence data of typhoid and paratyphoid fever collected from the China Health Statistical Yearbook. Model fitting accuracy test was used to evaluate the performance of these two models. Then, the next catastrophe date was predicted by the better model.
resultsThe simulation results showed that DGM model was better than GM(1,1) model in our data set. Using the DGM model, we predicted the next epidemic peak time will occur between 2023 to 2025.
conclusionThe grey disaster model can predict the typhoid and paratyphoid fever epidemic time precisely, which may provide valuable information for disease prevention and control.
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Registered trials
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