ArticlePLoS computational biology2013
Optimal vaccine allocation for the early mitigation of pandemic influenza.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 64 citations in OpenAlex.
- The use and reporting of airline passenger data for infectious disease modelling: a systematic review.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019Pooled it
- A discrete SIR epidemic model incorporating media impact, resource limitaions and threshold switching strategies.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Protect or prevent? A practicable framework for the dilemmas of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization.PloS one · 2025Article
- Optimizing two-dose vaccine resource allocation to combat a pandemic in the context of limited supply: The case of COVID-19.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Comparison of health-oriented cross-regional allocation strategies for the COVID-19 vaccine: a mathematical modelling study.Annals of medicine · 2022Article
- Optimizing laboratory-based surveillance networks for monitoring multi-genotype or multi-serotype infections.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Multi-period vaccine allocation model in a pandemic: A case study of COVID-19 in Australia.Transportation research. Part E, Logistics and transportation review · 2022Article
- Vaccine and inclusion.Journal of public economic theory · 2022Article
- Fair and diverse allocation of scarce resources.Socio-economic planning sciences · 2022Article
- Where to locate COVID-19 mass vaccination facilities?Naval research logistics · 2022Article
- Dynamic resource allocation for controlling pathogen spread on a large metapopulation network.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines makes a life-saving difference to all countries.Nature human behaviour · 2022Article
- Dynamic prioritization of COVID-19 vaccines when social distancing is limited for essential workers.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- Pandemic Preparedness Against Influenza: DNA Vaccine for Rapid Relief.Frontiers in immunology · 2021Article
- Article
- Dynamic Prioritization of COVID-19 Vaccines When Social Distancing is Limited for Essential Workers.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2020Article
- A theoretical single-parameter model for urbanisation to study infectious disease spread and interventions.PLoS computational biology · 2019Article
- Epidemiologic and economic impact of pharmacies as vaccination locations during an influenza epidemic.Vaccine · 2018Article
- Influenza interaction with cocirculating pathogens and its impact on surveillance, pathogenesis, and epidemic profile: A key role for mathematical modelling.PLoS pathogens · 2018Review
- Value of inventory information in allocating a limited supply of influenza vaccine during a pandemic.PloS one · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
With new cases of avian influenza H5N1 (H5N1AV) arising frequently, the threat of a new influenza pandemic remains a challenge for public health. Several vaccines have been developed specifically targeting H5N1AV, but their production is limited and only a few million doses are readily available. Because there is an important time lag between the emergence of new pandemic strain and the development and distribution of a vaccine, shortage of vaccine is very likely at the beginning of a pandemic. We coupled a mathematical model with a genetic algorithm to optimally and dynamically distribute vaccine in a network of cities, connected by the airline transportation network. By minimizing the illness attack rate (i.e., the percentage of people in the population who become infected and ill), we focus on optimizing vaccine allocation in a network of 16 cities in Southeast Asia when only a few million doses are available. In our base case, we assume the vaccine is well-matched and vaccination occurs 5 to 10 days after the beginning of the epidemic. The effectiveness of all the vaccination strategies drops off as the timing is delayed or the vaccine is less well-matched. Under the best assumptions, optimal vaccination strategies substantially reduced the illness attack rate, with a maximal reduction in the attack rate of 85%. Furthermore, our results suggest that cooperative strategies where the resources are optimally distributed among the cities perform much better than the strategies where the vaccine is equally distributed among the network, yielding an illness attack rate 17% lower. We show that it is possible to significantly mitigate a more global epidemic with limited quantities of vaccine, provided that the vaccination campaign is extremely fast and it occurs within the first weeks of transmission.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.