Evidence map›Paper›PMID 23547265›Full record

ArticleNeurology2013

Predicting cognitive decline: a dementia risk score vs. the Framingham vascular risk scores.

Sara Kaffashian, Aline Dugravot, Alexis Elbaz, Martin J Shipley, Séverine Sabia, Mika Kivimäki, Archana Singh-Manoux

Abstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in Neurology, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 106 papers, 8 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
106citing papers in PubMed, 8 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

106 citing papers in PubMed, 8 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Umbrella review and Delphi study on modifiable factors for dementia risk reduction.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2024
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  13. Prediction of Episodic Memory With Multiomics Scores.Biological psychiatry global open science · 2026
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  17. Comment on "Predicting cognitive function and dementia risk in patients with hypertension".Hypertension research : official journal of the Japanese Society of Hypertension · 2025
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46 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Sara KaffashianINSERM, U1018, Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health, Villejuif; Université de Versailles St. Quentin, France. sara.kaffashian@inserm.fr
Aline Dugravot
Alexis Elbaz
Martin J Shipley
Séverine Sabia
Mika Kivimäki
Archana Singh-Manoux

Funding

Socio-economic status and heterogeneity in agingR01AG013196 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF LONDON INST OF NEUROLOGY · PI MARMOT, MICHAEL G, SINGH-MANOUX, ARCHANA · 1996 to 2013
$3.5M
Socioeconomic gradient in CHD in early old ageR01HL036310 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF LONDON · PI KIVIMAKI, MIKA J, MARMOT, MICHAEL G · 1986 to 2012
$3.1M
Health behaviors over the adult lifecourse and cognitive agingR01AG034454 · NIA · UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON · PI KIVIMAKI, MIKA J, SINGH-MANOUX, ARCHANA · 2009 to 2013
$1.5M
SOCIAL FACTORS INFLUENCING MEDICAL OUTCOME MEASURESR01HS006516 · AHRQ · UNIVERSITY OF LONDON · PI MARMOT, MICHAEL G · 1990 to 1995
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AHRQ HHS HS06516British Heart Foundation PG/11/63/29011British Heart Foundation RG/13/2/30098Medical Research Council G0902037NHLBI NIH HHS R01HL36310NIA NIH HHS R01AG013196NIA NIH HHS R01AG034454
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveOur aim was to compare 2 Framingham vascular risk scores with a dementia risk score in relation to 10-year cognitive decline in late middle age.

methodsParticipants were men and women with mean age of 55.6 years at baseline, from the Whitehall II study, a longitudinal British cohort study. We compared the Framingham general cardiovascular disease risk score and the Framingham stroke risk score with the cardiovascular risk factors, aging and dementia (CAIDE) risk score that uses risk factors in midlife to estimate risk of late-life dementia. Cognitive tests included reasoning, memory, verbal fluency, vocabulary, and global cognition, assessed 3 times over 10 years.

resultsHigher cardiovascular disease risk and higher stroke risk were associated with greater cognitive decline in all tests except memory; higher dementia risk was associated with greater decline in reasoning, vocabulary, and global cognitive scores. Compared with the dementia risk score, cardiovascular and stroke risk scores showed slightly stronger associations with 10-year cognitive decline; these differences were statistically significant for semantic fluency and global cognitive scores. For example, cardiovascular disease risk was associated with -0.06 SD (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.08, -0.05) decline in the global cognitive scores over 10 years whereas dementia risk was associated with -0.03 SD (95% CI = -0.04, -0.01) decline (difference in β coefficients = 0.03; 95% CI = 0.01, 0.05).

conclusionsThe CAIDE dementia and Framingham risk scores predict cognitive decline in late middle age but the Framingham risk scores may have an advantage over the dementia risk score for use in primary prevention for assessing risk of cognitive decline and targeting of modifiable risk factors.

Indexed as

Severity of Illness IndexAdultCognition DisordersDementiaDisease ProgressionFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedNeuropsychological TestsPredictive Value of TestsRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID23547265
PMCPMC3656460

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.