ArticlePloS one2013
Present, future, and novel bioclimates of the San Francisco, California region.
Article in PloS one, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Bioclimatic Characterisation of Specific Native Californian Pinales and Their Future Suitability under Climate Change.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Article
- Bioclimatic pattern in a Mediterranean mountain area: assessment from a classification approach on a regional scale.International journal of biometeorology · 2021Article
- Assessment of bioclimatic change in Kazakhstan, end 20th-middle 21st centuries, according to the PRECIS prediction.PloS one · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), were constructed for northern California coastal ranges based on the Rivas-Martinez worldwide bioclimatic classification system for the end of the 20(th) century climatology (1971-2000) and end of the 21(st) century climatology (2070-2099) using two models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), under the medium-high A2 emission scenario. The digitally mapped results were used to 1) assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and their magnitude of change, 2) quantify the loss of isobioclimates into the future, 3) identify and locate novel isobioclimates projected to appear, and 4) explore compositional change in vegetation types among analog isobioclimate patches. This study used downscaled climate variables to map the isobioclimates at a fine spatial resolution -270 m grid cells. Common to both models of future climate was a large change in thermotype. Changes in ombrotype differed among the two models. The end of 20(th) century climatology has 83 isobioclimates covering the 63,000 km(2) study area. In both future projections 51 of those isobioclimates disappear over 40,000 km(2). The ordination of vegetation-bioclimate relationships shows very strong correlation of Rivas-Martinez indices with vegetation distribution and composition. Comparisons of vegetation composition among analog patches suggest that vegetation change will be a local rearrangement of species already in place rather than one requiring long distance dispersal. The digitally mapped results facilitate comparison with other Mediterranean regions. Major remaining challenges include predicting vegetation composition of novel isobioclimates and developing metrics to compare differences in climate space.
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