ArticleComputational and mathematical methods in medicine2013
Age-dependent estimates of the epidemiological impact of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan.
Article in Computational and mathematical methods in medicine, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 91 citations in OpenAlex.
- Rate of diagnosed seasonal influenza in children with influenza-like illness: A cross-sectional study.PloS one · 2022Article
- Quantifying the causal impact of funding bedside antigen testing on the incidence of respiratory syncytial virus infection in Japan: a difference-in-differences study.Annals of translational medicine · 2020Article
- Fine-scale family structure shapes influenza transmission risk in households: Insights from primary schools in Matsumoto city, 2014/15.PLoS computational biology · 2019Article
- Modelling a Supplementary Vaccination Program of Rubella Using the 2012⁻2013 Epidemic Data in Japan.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Article
- Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2019Article
- Cost-effective length and timing of school closure during an influenza pandemic depend on the severity.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2014Article
- Modeling the obesity epidemic: social contagion and its implications for control.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2013Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The total number of influenza cases with medical attendance has been estimated from sentinel surveillance data in Japan under a random sampling assumption of sentinel medical institutions among the total medical institutions. The 2009 pandemic offered a research opportunity to validate the sentinel-based estimation method using the estimated proportion of infections measured by the population-wide seroepidemiological survey employing hemagglutinin inhibition (HI) assay. For the entire population, we estimated the age-standardized proportion of infections at 28.5% and 23.5% using cut-off values of HI titer at 1 : 20 and 1 : 40, respectively. Investigating the age profiles, we show that the estimated influenza-like illness (ILI) cases with medical attendance exceeded the estimated infections among those aged from 0 to 19 years, indicating an overestimation of the magnitude by sentinel-based estimation method. The ratio of estimated cases to estimated infections decreased as a function of age. Examining the geographic distributions, no positive correlation was identified between the estimated cases and infections. Our findings indicate a serious technical limitation of the so-called multiplier method in appropriately quantifying the risk of influenza due to limited specificity of ILI and reporting bias. A seroepidemiological study should be planned in advance of a pandemic.
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