ArticleBMC public health2013
Economic analysis of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies for five pandemic severity categories.
Article in BMC public health, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 31 citations in OpenAlex.
- A Systematic Review of the Costs Relating to Non-pharmaceutical Interventions Against Infectious Disease Outbreaks.Applied health economics and health policy · 2021Pooled it
- Cost-Effectiveness of Antiviral Treatments for Pandemics and Outbreaks of Respiratory Illnesses, Including COVID-19: A Systematic Review of Published Economic Evaluations.Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research · 2020Pooled it
- Optimal pandemic control strategies and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions in the United States.BMC global and public health · 2025Article
- The effectiveness of intervention measures on MERS-CoV transmission by using the contact networks reconstructed from link prediction data.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Do governmental policy interventions help urban economic recovery? Experimental evidence from China's provinces governance amid the COVID-19 pandemic.Growth and change · 2022Article
- Place of distancing measures in containing epidemics: a scoping review.The Libyan journal of medicine · 2022Article
- Economic evaluations of interventions against viral pandemics: a scoping review.Public health · 2022Article
- Effectiveness of Intervention Strategies on MERS-CoV Transmission Dynamics in South Korea, 2015: Simulations on the Network Based on the Real-World Contact Data.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions related to social distancing on respiratory viral infectious disease outcomes: A rapid evidence-based review and meta-analysis.SAGE open medicine · 2021Review
- Evaluating the effect of city lock-down on controlling COVID-19 propagation through deep learning and network science models.Cities (London, England) · 2020Article
- Costs and benefits of interventions aimed at major infectious disease threats: lessons from the literature.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2020Review
- Comparison of methods to Estimate Basic Reproduction Number (Journal of research in medical sciences : the official journal of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences · 2019Article
- The Effect of School Closure on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Transmission in Singapore: A Modeling Approach.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2018Article
- Cost-utility analysis of antiviral use under pandemic influenza using a novel approach - linking pharmacology, epidemiology and heath economics.Epidemiology and infection · 2018Article
- The impact of hand, foot and mouth disease control policies in Singapore: A qualitative analysis of public perceptions.Journal of public health policy · 2017Article
- Modelling community-control strategies to protect hospital resources during an influenza pandemic in Ottawa, Canada.PloS one · 2017Article
- Reviewing the History of Pandemic Influenza: Understanding Patterns of Emergence and Transmission.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2016Review
- Estimating the United States demand for influenza antivirals and the effect on severe influenza disease during a potential pandemic.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2015Article
- Cost-Effective Control of Infectious Disease Outbreaks Accounting for Societal Reaction.PloS one · 2015Article
- A model-based economic analysis of pre-pandemic influenza vaccination cost-effectiveness.BMC infectious diseases · 2014Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe threat of emergence of a human-to-human transmissible strain of highly pathogenic influenza A(H5N1) is very real, and is reinforced by recent results showing that genetically modified A(H5N1) may be readily transmitted between ferrets. Public health authorities are hesitant in introducing social distancing interventions due to societal disruption and productivity losses. This study estimates the effectiveness and total cost (from a societal perspective, with a lifespan time horizon) of a comprehensive range of social distancing and antiviral drug strategies, under a range of pandemic severity categories.
methodsAn economic analysis was conducted using a simulation model of a community of ~30,000 in Australia. Data from the 2009 pandemic was used to derive relationships between the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and hospitalization rates for each of five pandemic severity categories, with CFR ranging from 0.1% to 2.5%.
resultsFor a pandemic with basic reproduction number R0 = 1.8, adopting no interventions resulted in total costs ranging from $441 per person for a pandemic at category 1 (CFR 0.1%) to $8,550 per person at category 5 (CFR 2.5%). For severe pandemics of category 3 (CFR 0.75%) and greater, a strategy combining antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, extended school closure and community contact reduction resulted in the lowest total cost of any strategy, costing $1,584 per person at category 5. This strategy was highly effective, reducing the attack rate to 5%. With low severity pandemics costs are dominated by productivity losses due to illness and social distancing interventions, whereas higher severity pandemic costs are dominated by healthcare costs and costs arising from productivity losses due to death.
conclusionsFor pandemics in high severity categories the strategies with the lowest total cost to society involve rigorous, sustained social distancing, which are considered unacceptable for low severity pandemics due to societal disruption and cost.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.