ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2013
Test-and-treat in Los Angeles: a mathematical model of the effects of test-and-treat for the population of men who have sex with men in Los Angeles County.
Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Population-level mathematical modeling of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic review.BMC medicine · 2019Pooled it
- Epidemiologic Impact of Prioritizing Long-Acting Injectable Cabotegravir to Men Who Have Sex With Men With Low Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Use Adherence in the Netherlands: A Mathematical Modeling Study.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2026Article
- Impact of voluntary testing on infectious disease epidemiology: A game theoretic approach.PloS one · 2023Article
- Cost utility analysis of HIV pre exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in Israel.BMC public health · 2020Article
- Stigma and outness about sexual behaviors among cisgender men who have sex with men and transgender women in Eswatini: a latent class analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Time to change the paradigm: limited condom and lubricant use among Nigerian men who have sex with men and transgender women despite availability and counseling.Annals of epidemiology · 2019Article
- Cost-effectiveness and budget effect of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV-1 prevention in Germany from 2018 to 2058.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019Article
- Research priorities to inform "Treat All" policy implementation for people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a consensus statement from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA).Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2019Article
- Article
- AIDS incidence trends at presentation and during follow-up among HIV-at-risk populations: a 15-year nationwide cohort study in Taiwan.BMC public health · 2018Article
- Provider perceptions on HIV risk and prevention services within permanent supportive housing.AIDS care · 2017Article
- Diminishing Perceived Threat of AIDS and Increasing Sexual Risks of HIV Among Men Who Have Sex with Men, 1997-2015.Archives of sexual behavior · 2017Article
- Increases in CD4Antiviral therapy · 2017Article
- Increased Prevalence of Controlled Viremia and Decreased Rates of HIV Drug Resistance Among HIV-Positive People Who Use Illicit Drugs During a Community-wide Treatment-as-Prevention Initiative.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2016Article
- Potential impact on HIV incidence of higher HIV testing rates and earlier antiretroviral therapy initiation in MSM.AIDS (London, England) · 2015Article
- Article
- Early HIV treatment in the United States prevented nearly 13,500 infections per year during 1996-2009.Health affairs (Project Hope) · 2014Article
- A call to action for concentrated HIV epidemics.Current opinion in HIV and AIDS · 2014Article
- HIV treatment as prevention: contradictory perspectives from dynamic mathematical models.TheScientificWorldJournal · 2014Review
- "Test-and-treat" strategy for control of HIV and AIDS can lead to a decrease, not an increase, of multidrug-resistant viruses.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2013Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThere is evidence to suggest that antiretroviral therapy (ART) and testing for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) reduce the probability of transmission of HIV. This has led health officials across the United States to take steps toward a test-and-treat policy. However, the extent of the benefits generated by test-and-treat is debatable, and there are concerns, such as increased multidrug resistance (MDR), that remain unaddressed.
methodsWe developed a deterministic epidemiologic model to simulate the HIV/AIDS epidemic for men who have sex with men (MSM) in Los Angeles County (LAC). We calibrated the model to match the HIV surveillance data from LAC across a 10-year period, starting in 2000. We then modified our model to simulate the test-and-treat policy and compared epidemiologic outcomes under the test-and-treat scenario to the status quo scenario over the years 2012-2023. Outcome measures included new infections, deaths, new AIDS cases, and MDR.
resultsRelative to the status quo, the test-and-treat model resulted in a 34% reduction in new infections, 19% reduction in deaths, and 39% reduction in new AIDS cases by 2023. However, these results are counterbalanced by a near doubling of the prevalence of MDR (9.06% compared to 4.79%) in 2023. We also found that the effects of increasing testing and treatment were not complementary.
conclusionsAlthough test-and-treat generates substantial benefits, it will not eliminate the epidemic for MSM in LAC. Moreover, these benefits are counterbalanced by large increases in MDR.
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