Evidence map›Paper›PMID 23481623›Full record

ArticleCirculation2013

The global cardiovascular risk transition: associations of four metabolic risk factors with national income, urbanization, and Western diet in 1980 and 2008.

Goodarz Danaei, Gitanjali M Singh, Christopher J Paciorek, John K Lin, Melanie J Cowan, Mariel M Finucane, Farshad Farzadfar, Gretchen A Stevens, Leanne M Riley, Yuan Lu and 3 more

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PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Circulation, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 130 papers, 9 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
130citing papers in PubMed, 9 pooled it
28.7field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

130 citing papers in PubMed, 9 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 248 citations in OpenAlex.

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  6. Secular trends in blood pressure in children: A systematic review.Journal of clinical hypertension (Greenwich, Conn.) · 2017
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  8. Maintenance Dialysis throughout the World in Years 1990 and 2010.Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN · 2015
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70 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 7 institutions in 4 countries.

Goodarz DanaeiDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Gitanjali M Singh
Christopher J Paciorek
John K Lin
Melanie J Cowan
Mariel M Finucane
Farshad Farzadfar
Gretchen A Stevens
Leanne M Riley
Yuan Lu
Mayuree Rao
Majid Ezzati
Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors of Chronic Diseases Collaborating Group
Imperial College London · GBHarvard University · USWorld Health Organization · CHGladstone Institutes · USTehran University of Medical Sciences · IRUniversity of California, Berkeley · USUniversity of California, San Francisco · US

Funding

TRAINING GRANT IN ACADEMIC NUTRITIONT32DK007703 · NIDDK · HARVARD UNIVERSITY (SCH OF PUBLIC HLTH) · PI CHRISTOPHER P DUGGAN, Frank B Hu · 1994 to 2026
$7.8M
British Heart Foundation PG/05/046/18730Medical Research Council MC_U147574245Medical Research Council MC_UP_A620_1016Medical Research Council MC_UU_12011/3Medical Research Council MR/K005901/1NIDDK NIH HHS T32 DK007703
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIt is commonly assumed that cardiovascular disease risk factors are associated with affluence and Westernization. We investigated the associations of body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose, systolic blood pressure, and serum total cholesterol with national income, Western diet, and, for BMI, urbanization in 1980 and 2008. METHODS AND

resultsCountry-level risk factor estimates for 199 countries between 1980 and 2008 were from a previous systematic analysis of population-based data. We analyzed the associations between risk factors and per capita national income, a measure of Western diet, and, for BMI, the percentage of the population living in urban areas. In 1980, there was a positive association between national income and population mean BMI, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol. By 2008, the slope of the association between national income and systolic blood pressure became negative for women and zero for men. Total cholesterol was associated with national income and Western diet in both 1980 and 2008. In 1980, BMI rose with national income and then flattened at ≈Int$7000; by 2008, the relationship resembled an inverted U for women, peaking at middle-income levels. BMI had a positive relationship with the percentage of urban population in both 1980 and 2008. Fasting plasma glucose had weaker associations with these country macro characteristics, but it was positively associated with BMI.

conclusionsThe changing associations of metabolic risk factors with macroeconomic variables indicate that there will be a global pandemic of hyperglycemia and diabetes mellitus, together with high blood pressure in low-income countries, unless effective lifestyle and pharmacological interventions are implemented.

Indexed as

Feeding BehaviorUrbanizationAdultAge DistributionBlood PressureBody Mass IndexCardiovascular DiseasesCholesterolDeveloping CountriesDiabetes MellitusFemaleGlobal HealthHumansHypercholesterolemiaHypertensionMaleCholesterol

Identifiers

PMID23481623
PMCPMC4181853
OpenAlexW2133204090

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.