ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis2013
Oral poliovirus vaccine evolution and insights relevant to modeling the risks of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs).
Article in Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 68 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
68 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 105 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pooled it
- Immunodeficiency-related vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) cases: a systematic review and implications for polio eradication.Vaccine · 2015Pooled it
- Characterization of environmental and clinical surveillance inputs to support prospective integrated modeling of the polio endgame.PLOS global public health · 2025Review
- Increasing Population Immunity Prior to Globally-Coordinated Cessation of Bivalent Oral Poliovirus Vaccine (bOPV).Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Modeling the spread of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks and interventions: A case study of Nigeria.Vaccine: X · 2024Article
- Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and Responses in New York State.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Rapid emergence and transmission of virulence-associated mutations in the oral poliovirus vaccine following vaccination campaigns.NPJ vaccines · 2023Article
- Article
- Rapid emergence and transmission of virulence-associated mutations in the oral poliovirus vaccine following vaccination campaigns.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- From vaccine to pathogen: Modeling Sabin 2 vaccine virus reversion and evolutionary epidemiology in Matlab, Bangladesh.Virus evolution · 2023Article
- Complexity of options related to restarting oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in national immunization programs after OPV cessation.Gates open research · 2023Article
- Looking back at prospective modeling of outbreak response strategies for managing global type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) cessation.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Circulating vaccine derived polio virus type 1 outbreak, Saadah governorate, Yemen, 2020.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- The association of online search interest with polio cases and vaccine coverage: an infodemiological and ecological study.European journal of pediatrics · 2021Article
- Article
- Global Transmission of Live Polioviruses: Updated Dynamic Modeling of the Polio Endgame.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019-2029.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Updated Characterization of Outbreak Response Strategies for 2019-2029: Impacts of Using a Novel Type 2 Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Strain.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Potential Future Use, Costs, and Value of Poliovirus Vaccines.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Updated Characterization of Post-OPV Cessation Risks: Lessons from 2019 Serotype 2 Outbreaks and Implications for the Probability of OPV Restart.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Review
8 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The live, attenuated oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) provides a powerful tool for controlling and stopping the transmission of wild polioviruses (WPVs), although the risks of vaccine-associated paralytic polio (VAPP) and circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks exist as long as OPV remains in use. Understanding the dynamics of cVDPV emergence and outbreaks as a function of population immunity and other risk factors may help to improve risk management and the development of strategies to respond to possible outbreaks. We performed a comprehensive review of the literature related to the process of OPV evolution and information available from actual experiences with cVDPV outbreaks. Only a relatively small fraction of poliovirus infections cause symptoms, which makes direct observation of the trajectory of OPV evolution within a population impractical and leads to significant uncertainty. Despite a large global surveillance system, the existing genetic sequence data largely provide information about transmitted virulent polioviruses that caused acute flaccid paralysis, and essentially no data track the changes that occur in OPV sequences as the viruses transmit largely asymptomatically through real populations with suboptimal immunity. We updated estimates of cVDPV risks based on actual experiences and identified the many limitations in the existing data on poliovirus transmission and immunity and OPV virus evolution that complicate modeling. Modelers should explore the space of potential model formulations and inputs consistent with the available evidence and future studies should seek to improve our understanding of the OPV virus evolution process to provide better information for policymakers working to manage cVDPV risks.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.