ArticlePloS one2013
Pneumococcal transmission and disease in silico: a microsimulation model of the indirect effects of vaccination.
Article in PloS one, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 51 citations in OpenAlex.
- Models to predict the public health impact of vaccine resistance: A systematic review.Vaccine · 2019Pooled it
- Lessons from a decade of individual-based models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2006-2015).BMC infectious diseases · 2017Pooled it
- Estimated Burden of Influenza and Direct and Indirect Benefits of Influenza Vaccination.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Herd Immunity Effects in Cost-Effectiveness Analyses among Low- and Middle-Income Countries.Applied health economics and health policy · 2022Review
- The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) does not appear to provide much protection on combined invasive disease due to the six PCV13 non-PCV7 serotypes 1, 3, 5, 6A, 7F, and 19A in Kuwait during 2010-2019.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2021Article
- Serotype Patterns of Pneumococcal Disease in Adults Are Correlated With Carriage Patterns in Older Children.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- Article
- Predicting N-Strain Coexistence from Co-colonization Interactions: Epidemiology Meets Ecology and the Replicator Equation.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2020Article
- Estimating the contribution of different age strata to vaccine serotype pneumococcal transmission in the pre vaccine era: a modelling study.BMC medicine · 2020Article
- High residual carriage of vaccine-serotype Streptococcus pneumoniae after introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Malawi.Nature communications · 2020Observational
- Determinants of high residual post-PCV13 pneumococcal vaccine-type carriage in Blantyre, Malawi: a modelling study.BMC medicine · 2019Article
- Estimated impact of revising the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine schedule from 2+1 to 1+1 in England and Wales: A modelling study.PLoS medicine · 2019Article
- Association Between the Decline in Pneumococcal Disease in Unimmunized Adults and Vaccine-Derived Protection Against Colonization in Toddlers and Preschool-Aged Children.American journal of epidemiology · 2019Article
- Article
- Exploring the role of competition induced by non-vaccine serotypes for herd protection following pneumococcal vaccination.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2017Article
- Geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV7.Scientific reports · 2017Article
- Article
- Observational
- Multi-serotype pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage prevalence in vaccine naïve Nepalese children, assessed using molecular serotyping.PloS one · 2015Article
- Identifying an appropriate PCV for use in Senegal, recent insights concerning Streptococcus pneumoniae NP carriage and IPD in Dakar.BMC infectious diseases · 2014Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe degree and time frame of indirect effects of vaccination (serotype replacement and herd immunity) are key determinants in assessing the net effectiveness of vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) in control of pneumococcal disease. Using modelling, we aimed to quantify these effects and their dependence on coverage of vaccination and the vaccine's efficacy against susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage. METHODS AND
findingsWe constructed an individual-based simulation model that explores the effects of large-scale PCV programmes and applied it in a developed country setting (Finland). A population structure with transmission of carriage taking place within relevant mixing groups (families, day care groups, schools and neighbourhoods) was considered in order to properly assess the dependency of herd immunity on coverage of vaccination and vaccine efficacy against carriage. Issues regarding potential serotype replacement were addressed by employing a novel competition structure between multiple pneumococcal serotypes. Model parameters were calibrated from pre-vaccination data about the age-specific carriage prevalence and serotype distribution. The model predicts that elimination of vaccine-type carriage and disease among those vaccinated and, due to a substantial herd effect, also among the general population takes place within 5-10 years since the onset of a PCV programme with high (90%) coverage of vaccination and moderate (50%) vaccine efficacy against acquisition of carriage. A near-complete replacement of vaccine-type carriage by non-vaccine-type carriage occurs within the same time frame.
conclusionsThe changed patterns in pneumococcal carriage after PCV vaccination predicted by the model are unequivocal. The overall effect on disease incidence depends crucially on the magnitude of age- and serotype-specific case-to-carrier ratios of the remaining serotypes relative to those of the vaccine types. Thus the availability of reliable data on the incidence of both pneumococcal carriage and disease is essential in assessing the net effectiveness of PCV vaccination in a given epidemiological setting.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.