Latitudinal variations in seasonal activity of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV): a global comparative review.

backgroundThere is limited information on influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonal patterns in tropical areas, although there is renewed interest in understanding the seasonal drivers of respiratory viruses.

methodsWe review geographic variations in seasonality of laboratory-confirmed influenza and RSV epidemics in 137 global locations based on literature review and electronic sources. We assessed peak timing and epidemic duration and explored their association with geography and study settings. We fitted time series model to weekly national data available from the WHO influenza surveillance system (FluNet) to further characterize seasonal parameters.

resultsInfluenza and RSV activity consistently peaked during winter months in temperate locales, while there was greater diversity in the tropics. Several temperate locations experienced semi-annual influenza activity with peaks occurring in winter and summer. Semi-annual activity was relatively common in tropical areas of Southeast Asia for both viruses. Biennial cycles of RSV activity were identified in Northern Europe. Both viruses exhibited weak latitudinal gradients in the timing of epidemics by hemisphere, with peak timing occurring later in the calendar year with increasing latitude (P<0.03). Time series model applied to influenza data from 85 countries confirmed the presence of latitudinal gradients in timing, duration, seasonal amplitude, and between-year variability of epidemics. Overall, 80% of tropical locations experienced distinct RSV seasons lasting 6 months or less, while the percentage was 50% for influenza.

conclusionOur review combining literature and electronic data sources suggests that a large fraction of tropical locations experience focused seasons of respiratory virus activity in individual years. Information on seasonal patterns remains limited in large undersampled regions, included Africa and Central America. Future studies should attempt to link the observed latitudinal gradients in seasonality of viral epidemics with climatic and population factors, and explore regional differences in disease transmission dynamics and attack rates.