ArticleEpidemics2013
Detectable signals of episodic risk effects on acute HIV transmission: strategies for analyzing transmission systems using genetic data.
Article in Epidemics, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Agent based modelling of blood borne viruses: a scoping review.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Methods Combining Genomic and Epidemiological Data in the Reconstruction of Transmission Trees: A Systematic Review.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Review
- Temporal Fluctuations in Behavior, Perceived HIV Risk, and Willingness to Use Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP).Archives of sexual behavior · 2018Article
- Impact of Heterogeneity in Sexual Behavior on Effectiveness in Reducing HIV Transmission with Test-and-Treat Strategy.PLoS computational biology · 2016Article
- Reassessment of HIV-1 acute phase infectivity: accounting for heterogeneity and study design with simulated cohorts.PLoS medicine · 2015Article
- Why the proportion of transmission during early-stage HIV infection does not predict the long-term impact of treatment on HIV incidence.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2014Article
- A stochastic agent-based model of pathogen propagation in dynamic multi-relational social networks.Simulation · 2014Article
- Toward an endgame: finding and engaging people unaware of their HIV-1 infection in treatment and prevention.AIDS research and human retroviruses · 2014Review
- Antiretroviral treatment of HIV-1 prevents transmission of HIV-1: where do we go from here?Lancet (London, England) · 2013Review
- Prospects of elimination of HIV with test-and-treat strategy.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2013Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Episodic high-risk sexual behavior is common and can have a profound effect on HIV transmission. In a model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM), changing the frequency, duration and contact rates of high-risk episodes can take endemic prevalence from zero to 50% and more than double transmissions during acute HIV infection (AHI). Undirected test and treat could be inefficient in the presence of strong episodic risk effects. Partner services approaches that use a variety of control options will be likely to have better effects under these conditions, but the question remains: What data will reveal if a population is experiencing episodic risk effects? HIV sequence data from Montreal reveals genetic clusters whose size distribution stabilizes over time and reflects the size distribution of acute infection outbreaks (AIOs). Surveillance provides complementary behavioral data. In order to use both types of data efficiently, it is essential to examine aspects of models that affect both the episodic risk effects and the shape of transmission trees. As a demonstration, we use a deterministic compartmental model of episodic risk to explore the determinants of the fraction of transmissions during acute HIV infection (AHI) at the endemic equilibrium. We use a corresponding individual-based model to observe AIO size distributions and patterns of transmission within AIO. Episodic risk parameters determining whether AHI transmission trees had longer chains, more clustered transmissions from single individuals, or different mixes of these were explored. Encouragingly for parameter estimation, AIO size distributions reflected the frequency of transmissions from acute infection across divergent parameter sets. Our results show that episodic risk dynamics influence both the size and duration of acute infection outbreaks, thus providing a possible link between genetic cluster size distributions and episodic risk dynamics.
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