Evidence map›Paper›PMID 23407571›Full record

SynthesisJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2013

A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010.

Robert C Reiner, T Alex Perkins, Christopher M Barker, Tianchan Niu, Luis Fernando Chaves, Alicia M Ellis, Dylan B George, Arnaud Le Menach, Juliet R C Pulliam, Donal Bisanzio and 21 more

Abstract readComparative StudySystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 209 papers, 8 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
209citing papers in PubMed, 8 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

209 citing papers in PubMed, 8 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  8. Predictive modeling of West Nile virus transmission risk in the Mediterranean Basin: how far from landing?International journal of environmental research and public health · 2013
    Pooled it
  9. Article
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  18. Ensemble approaches for short-term dengue fever forecasts: A global evaluation study.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
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  20. Review

149 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

31 authors.

Robert C ReinerFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA. rcreiner@ucdavis.edu
T Alex Perkins
Christopher M Barker
Tianchan Niu
Luis Fernando Chaves
Alicia M Ellis
Dylan B George
Arnaud Le Menach
Juliet R C Pulliam
Donal Bisanzio
Caroline Buckee
Christinah Chiyaka
Derek A T Cummings
Andres J Garcia
Michelle L Gatton
Peter W Gething
David M Hartley
Geoffrey Johnston
Eili Y Klein
Edwin Michael
Steven W Lindsay
Alun L Lloyd
David M Pigott
William K Reisen
Nick Ruktanonchai
Brajendra K Singh
Andrew J Tatem
Uriel Kitron
Simon I Hay
Thomas W Scott
David L Smith

Funding

Transmission ProjectU19AI089674 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI MATTHEW G DORSEY, MOSES Robert KAMYA · 2010 to 2026
$29.3M
SYTEMS AND INTEGRATIVE BIOLOGYT32GM008322 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI LOW, MALCOLM JAMES · 1990 to 2020
$5.7M
Measuring Entomological Risk for DengueR01AI069341 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT DAVIS · PI SCOTT, THOMAS WALLACE · 2006 to 2010
$2.3M
Improving Robustness of a Tactical Model of Aedes/Dengue DynamicsR01AI091980 · NIAID · NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY RALEIGH · PI GOULD, FRED · 2011 to 2014
$1.3M
Impact of climate change on mosquito-borne arbovirus transmissionU01EH000418 · EH · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT DAVIS · PI BARKER, C M · 2009 to 2011
$830k
Modeling lymphatic filariasis transmission and eradication in Papua New GuineaR01AI069387 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME · PI MICHAEL, EDWIN · 2007 to 2011
$773k
Medical Research Council MR/K00669X/1NCEH CDC HHS 5 U01 EH000418NCEH CDC HHS U01 EH000418NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI069341NIAID NIH HHS R01-AI069341NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI069387NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI069387-01A1NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI091980NIAID NIH HHS R01-AI091980NIAID NIH HHS U19 AI089674NIAID NIH HHS U19AI089674NIGMS NIH HHS R01-GM08322NIGMS NIH HHS T32 GM008322Wellcome Trust 095066
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross-Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross-Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross-Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.

Indexed as

Models, BiologicalAnimalsCommunicable DiseasesCulicidaeGeographyHost-Pathogen InteractionsInsect Vectors

Identifiers

PMID23407571
PMCPMC3627099

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.