ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2013
Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Epidemiological Dynamics in Populations Structured by Neighbourhoods and Households.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- Changing socio-economic and ethnic disparities in influenza/A/H1N1 infection early in the 2009 UK epidemic: a descriptive analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Interfering with influenza: nonlinear coupling of reactive and static mitigation strategies.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control.Journal of theoretical biology · 2020Article
- Incorporating household structure and demography into models of endemic disease.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2019Article
- Household Preparedness and Preferred Communication Channels in Public Health Emergencies: A Cross-Sectional Survey of Residents in an Asian Developed Urban City.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018Article
- Targeted Treatment of Yaws With Household Contact Tracing: How Much Do We Miss?American journal of epidemiology · 2018Article
- Scabies in residential care homes: Modelling, inference and interventions for well-connected population sub-units.PLoS computational biology · 2018Article
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- Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2015Article
- Assessing the use of antiviral treatment to control influenza.Epidemiology and infection · 2015Article
- Estimating the United States demand for influenza antivirals and the effect on severe influenza disease during a potential pandemic.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2015Article
- Timing of antimicrobial use influences the evolution of antimicrobial resistance during disease epidemics.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2014Article
- Antiviral prophylaxis and isolation for the control of pandemic influenza.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2014Article
- Containing the accidental laboratory escape of potential pandemic influenza viruses.BMC medicine · 2013Article
- Estimating a Markovian epidemic model using household serial interval data from the early phase of an epidemic.PloS one · 2013Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Antiviral treatment offers a fast acting alternative to vaccination; as such it is viewed as a first-line of defence against pandemic influenza in protecting families and households once infection has been detected. In clinical trials, antiviral treatments have been shown to be efficacious in preventing infection, limiting disease and reducing transmission, yet their impact at containing the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm outbreak was limited. To understand this seeming discrepancy, we develop a general and computationally efficient model for studying household-based interventions. This allows us to account for uncertainty in quantities relevant to the 2009 pandemic in a principled way, accounting for the heterogeneity and variability in each epidemiological process modelled. We find that the population-level effects of delayed antiviral treatment and prophylaxis mean that their limited overall impact is quantitatively consistent (at current levels of precision) with their reported clinical efficacy under ideal conditions. Hence, effective control of pandemic influenza with antivirals is critically dependent on early detection and delivery ideally within 24 h.
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