ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2013
Simultaneously reconstructing viral cross-species transmission history and identifying the underlying constraints.
Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 96 papers.
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Who cites it
96 citing papers in PubMed, 160 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Origin and cross-species transmission of bat coronaviruses in China.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Bat Rabies in the Americas: IsViruses · 2024Article
- Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Synchrony of Bird Migration with Global Dispersal of Avian Influenza Reveals Exposed Bird Orders.Nature communications · 2024Article
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- Phylogenomic analysis of 343 Xanthomonas citri pv. citri strains unravels introduction history and dispersal paths.PLoS pathogens · 2023Article
- The host phylogeny determines viral infectivity and replication across Staphylococcus host species.PLoS pathogens · 2023Article
- Mapping the Dynamics of Contemporary PRRSV-2 Evolution and Its Emergence and Spreading Hotspots in the U.S. Using Phylogeography.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
36 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The factors that determine the origin and fate of cross-species transmission events remain unclear for the majority of human pathogens, despite being central for the development of predictive models and assessing the efficacy of prevention strategies. Here, we describe a flexible Bayesian statistical framework to reconstruct virus transmission between different host species based on viral gene sequences, while simultaneously testing and estimating the contribution of several potential predictors of cross-species transmission. Specifically, we use a generalized linear model extension of phylogenetic diffusion to perform Bayesian model averaging over candidate predictors. By further extending this model with branch partitioning, we allow for distinct host transition processes on external and internal branches, thus discriminating between recent cross-species transmissions, many of which are likely to result in dead-end infections, and host shifts that reflect successful onwards transmission in the new host species. Our approach corroborates genetic distance between hosts as a key determinant of both host shifts and cross-species transmissions of rabies virus in North American bats. Furthermore, our results indicate that geographical range overlap is a modest predictor for cross-species transmission, but not for host shifts. Although our evolutionary framework focused on the multi-host reservoir dynamics of bat rabies virus, it is applicable to other pathogens and to other discrete state transition processes.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.