ArticleThe Lancet. Infectious diseases2013
HIV incidence in men who have sex with men in England and Wales 2001-10: a nationwide population study.
Article in The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 58 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
58 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 108 citations in OpenAlex.
- A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis to Estimate the Time from HIV Infection to Diagnosis for People with HIV.AIDS reviews · 2022Pooled it
- HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in men who have sex with men and transgender women: a secondary analysis of a phase 3 randomised controlled efficacy trial.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2014Trial
- Article
- Progress towards HIV transmission elimination targets: model-based estimation of incidence and the extent of undiagnosed infection, Scotland, 1981 to 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Article
- Characteristics of recent HIV infection among individuals newly diagnosed as HIV-positive in South Korea (2008-2015).Scientific reports · 2022Article
- A Markov based model to estimate the number of syphilis cases among floating population.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- HIV incidence estimates by sex and age group in the population aged 15 years or over, Brazil, 1986-2018.Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2022Article
- Tracking elimination of HIV transmission in men who have sex with men in England: a modelling study.The lancet. HIV · 2021Article
- Observational
- The cost-effectiveness of case-finding strategies for achieving hepatitis C elimination among men who have sex with men in the UK.Journal of viral hepatitis · 2021Article
- Declining trend in HIV new infections in Guangxi, China: insights from linking reported HIV/AIDS cases with CD4-at-diagnosis data.BMC public health · 2020Article
- Scaling up screening and treatment for elimination of hepatitis C among men who have sex with men in the era of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis.EClinicalMedicine · 2020Article
- Modeling methods for estimating HIV incidence: a mathematical review.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2020Review
- Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence.Lifetime data analysis · 2019Article
- Transmission patterns of HIV-1 non-R5 strains in Poland.Scientific reports · 2019Article
- Integration of a recent infection testing algorithm into HIV surveillance in Ireland: improving HIV knowledge to target prevention.Epidemiology and infection · 2019Article
- Protocol, rationale and design of SELPHI: a randomised controlled trial assessing whether offering free HIV self-testing kits via the internet increases the rate of HIV diagnosis.BMC infectious diseases · 2018Article
- Estimation of delay to diagnosis and incidence in HIV using indirect evidence of infection dates.BMC medical research methodology · 2018Article
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8 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundControl of HIV transmission could be achievable through an expansion of HIV testing of at-risk populations together with ready access and adherence to antiretroviral therapy. To examine whether increases in testing rates and antiretroviral therapy coverage correspond to the control of HIV transmission, we estimated HIV incidence in men who have sex with men (MSM) in England and Wales since 2001.
methodsA CD4-staged back-calculation model of HIV incidence was used to disentangle the competing contributions of time-varying rates of diagnosis and HIV incidence to observed HIV diagnoses. Estimated trends in time to diagnosis, incidence, and undiagnosed infection in MSM were interpreted against a backdrop of increased HIV testing rates and antiretroviral-therapy coverage over the period 2001-10.
findingsThe observed 3·7 fold expansion in HIV testing in MSM was mirrored by a decline in the estimated mean time-to-diagnosis interval from 4·0 years (95% credible interval [CrI] 3·8-4·2) in 2001 to 3·2 years (2·6-3·8) by the end of 2010. However, neither HIV incidence (2300-2500 annual infections) nor the number of undiagnosed HIV infections (7370, 95% CrI 6990-7800, in 2001, and 7690, 5460-10 580, in 2010) changed throughout the decade, despite an increase in antiretroviral uptake from 69% in 2001 to 80% in 2010.
interpretationCD4 cell counts at HIV diagnosis are fundamental to the production of robust estimates of incidence based on HIV diagnosis data. Improved frequency and targeting of HIV testing, as well as the introduction of ART at higher CD4 counts than is currently recommended, could begin a decline in HIV transmission among MSM in England and Wales.
fundingUK Medical Research Council, UK Health Protection Agency.
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