Evidence map›Paper›PMID 23331969›Full record

SynthesisInfluenza and other respiratory viruses2013

Estimating age-specific cumulative incidence for the 2009 influenza pandemic: a meta-analysis of A(H1N1)pdm09 serological studies from 19 countries.

Maria D Van Kerkhove, Siddhivinayak Hirve, Artemis Koukounari, Anthony W Mounts, H1N1pdm serology working group

Abstract readMeta-AnalysisReview
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 120 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
120citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

120 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  15. Swine influenza A virus: challenges and novel vaccine strategies.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2024
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  19. Serial cross-sectional estimation of vaccine-and infection-induced SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in British Columbia, Canada.CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2022
    Article
  20. Article

60 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Maria D Van KerkhoveGlobal Influenza Programme, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Siddhivinayak Hirve
Artemis Koukounari
Anthony W Mounts
H1N1pdm serology working group

Funding

Medical Research Council G0600719Medical Research Council MR/K010174/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe global impact of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic (H1N1pdm) is not well understood.

objectivesWe estimate overall and age-specific prevalence of cross-reactive antibodies to H1N1pdm virus and rates of H1N1pdm infection during the first year of the pandemic using data from published and unpublished H1N1pdm seroepidemiological studies.

methodsPrimary aggregate H1N1pdm serologic data from each study were stratified in standardized age groups and evaluated based on when sera were collected in relation to national or subnational peak H1N1pdm activity. Seropositivity was assessed using well-described and standardized hemagglutination inhibition (HI titers ≥ 32 or ≥ 40) and microneutralization (MN ≥ 40) laboratory assays. The prevalence of cross-reactive antibodies to the H1N1pdm virus was estimated for studies using sera collected prior to the start of the pandemic (between 2004 and April 2009); H1N1pdm cumulative incidence was estimated for studies in which collected both pre- and post-pandemic sera; and H1N1pdm seropositivity was calculated from studies with post-pandemic sera only (collected between December 2009-June 2010).

resultsData from 27 published/unpublished studies from 19 countries/administrative regions - Australia, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Reunion Island, Singapore, United Kingdom, United States, and Vietnam - were eligible for inclusion. The overall age-standardized pre-pandemic prevalence of cross-reactive antibodies was 5% (95%CI 3-7%) and varied significantly by age with the highest rates among persons ≥ 65 years old (14% 95%CI 8-24%). Overall age-standardized H1N1pdm cumulative incidence was 24% (95%CI 20-27%) and varied significantly by age with the highest in children 5-19 (47% 95%CI 39-55%) and 0-4 years old (36% 95%CI 30-43%).

conclusionsOur results offer unique insight into the global impact of the H1N1 pandemic and highlight the need for standardization of seroepidemiological studies and for their inclusion in pre-pandemic preparedness plans. Our results taken together with recent global pandemic respiratory-associated mortality estimates suggest that the case fatality ratio of the pandemic virus was approximately 0.02%.

Indexed as

Age FactorsAntibodies, ViralHumansInfluenza A Virus, H1N1 SubtypeInfluenza, HumanPandemicsSeroepidemiologic StudiesUnited StatesAntibodies, ViralA(H1N1)pdm09cross-reactive antibodiescumulative incidenceH1N1pdmseroprevalence

Identifiers

PMID23331969
PMCPMC5781221

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.