ArticleDemography2013
Including the smoking epidemic in internationally coherent mortality projections.
Article in Demography, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed.
- National Life Expectancy Lags Behind Benchmark Progress and the Role of Smoking: An International Comparison.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2025Article
- A modal age at death approach to forecasting adult mortality.Population studies · 2025Article
- Contributions of causes of death to differentials in life expectancy by internal migrant status in the Netherlands. A population register based study, 2015-2019.SSM - population health · 2024Article
- Future trends of life expectancy by education in the Netherlands.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Smoking epidemic in Europe in the 21st century.Tobacco control · 2021Article
- The combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on life-expectancy trends in Europe.International journal of epidemiology · 2021Article
- Future life expectancy in Europe taking into account the impact of smoking, obesity, and alcohol.eLife · 2021Article
- Accounting for Smoking in Forecasting Mortality and Life Expectancy.The annals of applied statistics · 2021Article
- The Role of Smoking in Country Differences in Life Expectancy Across Europe, 1985-2014.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2021Article
- Similarities and Differences Between Sexes and Countries in the Mortality Imprint of the Smoking Epidemic in 34 Low-Mortality Countries, 1950-2014.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2020Article
- ESTIMATING AND FORECASTING THE SMOKING-ATTRIBUTABLE MORTALITY FRACTION FOR BOTH GENDERS JOINTLY IN OVER 60 COUNTRIES.The annals of applied statistics · 2020Article
- Progression of the smoking epidemic in high-income regions and its effects on male-female survival differences: a cohort-by-age analysis of 17 countries.BMC public health · 2020Article
- Past trends in obesity-attributable mortality in eight European countries: an application of age-period-cohort analysis.International journal of public health · 2018Article
- Advances in mortality forecasting: introduction.Genus · 2018Article
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Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We present a new mortality projection methodology that distinguishes smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality and takes into account mortality trends of the opposite sex and in other countries. We evaluate to what extent future projections of life expectancy at birth (e 0) for the Netherlands up to 2040 are affected by the application of these components. All-cause mortality and non-smoking-related mortality for the years 1970-2006 are projected by the Lee-Carter and Li-Lee methodologies. Smoking-related mortality is projected according to assumptions on future smoking-attributable mortality. Projecting all-cause mortality in the Netherlands, using the Lee-Carter model, leads to high gains in e 0 (4.1 for males; 4.4 for females) and divergence between the sexes. Coherent projections, which include the mortality experience of the other 21 sex- and country-specific populations, result in much higher gains for males (6.4) and females (5.7), and convergence. The separate projection of smoking and non-smoking-related mortality produces a steady increase in e 0 for males (4.8) and a nonlinear trend for females, with lower gains in e 0 in the short run, resulting in temporary sex convergence. The latter effect is also found in coherent projections. Our methodology provides more robust projections, especially thanks to the distinction between smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality.
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