Trial reportMedical care2013
Limitations of basing screening policies on screening trials: The US Preventive Services Task Force and Prostate Cancer Screening.
Trial report in Medical care, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 38 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
38 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Systematic Review on the Cost Effectiveness of Prostate Cancer Screening in Europe.European urology · 2024Pooled it
- Radical prostatectomy versus deferred treatment for localised prostate cancer.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2020Pooled it
- Validation of Colorectal Cancer Models on Long-term Outcomes from a Randomized Controlled Trial.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2020Trial
- Rates of incidental prostate cancer following HoLEP Can it be predicted preoperatively?Canadian Urological Association journal = Journal de l'Association des urologues du Canada · 2026Article
- Exploring shared decision-making in prostate cancer screening within primary health care settings in Portugal: a cross-sectional study.BMC primary care · 2026Article
- A global review and perspective on prostate cancer survival: findings from survival studies of cancer registration data.Journal of the National Cancer Center · 2026Article
- From bench to bedside: the evolution and future of prostate-specific antigen testing.Medical oncology (Northwood, London, England) · 2025Review
- Review
- Prevalence and potential predictors of incidental prostate Cancer in patients undergoing surgery for Benign Prostatic obstruction: a retrospective study in the MRI era.World journal of urology · 2024Article
- Understanding the Barriers to Prostate Cancer Population-Based Early Detection Programs: The PRAISE-U BEST Survey.Journal of personalized medicine · 2024Article
- Association between vitamin B2 intake and prostate-specific antigen in American men: 2003-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Mortality reduction and cumulative excess incidence (CEI) in the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening era.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Prostate cancer-derived small extracellular vesicle proteins: the hope in diagnosis, prognosis, and therapeutics.Journal of nanobiotechnology · 2023Review
- A transfer learning nomogram for predicting prostate cancer and benign conditions on MRI.BMC medical imaging · 2023Article
- Survival differences between the USA and an urban population from China for all cancer types and 20 individual cancers: a population-based study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2023Article
- Mobile Health Solutions for Prostate Cancer Diagnostics-A Systematic Review.Clinics and practice · 2023Review
- Textural Features of MR Images Correlate with an Increased Risk of Clinically Significant Cancer in Patients with High PSA Levels.Journal of clinical medicine · 2023Article
- Population‑based prostate‑specific antigen screening for prostate cancer may have an indirect effect on early detection through opportunistic testing in Kusatsu City, Shiga, Japan.Molecular and clinical oncology · 2023Article
- Multicancer Early Detection: Learning From the Past to Meet the Future.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2022Article
- A Novel Combination of Serum Markers in a Multivariate Model to Help Triage Patients Into "Low-" and "High-Risk" Categories for Prostate Cancer.Frontiers in oncology · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe US Preventive Services Task Force recently recommended against prostate-specific antigen screening for prostate cancer based primarily on evidence from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) and the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial.
objective: To examine limitations of basing screening policy on evidence from screening trials.
methodsWe reviewed published modeling studies that examined population and trial data. The studies (1) project the roles of screening and changes in primary treatment in the US mortality decline; (2) extrapolate the ERSPC mortality reduction to the long-term US setting; (3) estimate overdiagnosis based on US incidence trends; and (4) quantify the impact of control arm screening on PLCO mortality results.
resultsScreening plausibly explains 45% and changes in primary treatment can explain 33% of the US prostate cancer mortality decline. Extrapolating the ERSPC results to the long-term US setting implies an absolute mortality reduction at least 5 times greater than that observed in the trial. Approximately 28% of screen-detected cases are overdiagnosed in the United States versus 58% of screen-detected cases suggested by the ERSPC results. Control arm screening can explain the null result in the PLCO trial.
conclusionsModeling studies indicate that population trends and trial results extended to the long-term population setting are consistent with greater benefit of prostate-specific antigen screening-and more favorable harm-benefit tradeoffs-than has been suggested by empirical trial evidence.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.