Evidence map›Paper›PMID 23222556›Full record

ArticleEpidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)2013

Hypothetical midlife interventions in women and risk of type 2 diabetes.

Goodarz Danaei, An Pan, Frank B Hu, Miguel A Hernán

Abstract readEvaluation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
49citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

49 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  8. Estimating the Effects of Hypothetical AmbientEnvironmental health perspectives · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Goodarz DanaeiDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA. gdanaei@hsph.harvard.edu
An Pan
Frank B Hu
Miguel A Hernán

Funding

Statistical MethodsP01CA087969 · NCI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI TWOROGER, SHELLEY S · 2000 to 2019
$77.8M
BIOCHEMICAL AND GENETIC MARKERS OF TYPE 2 DIABETES RISKR01DK058845 · NIDDK · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI HU, FRANK B · 2001 to 2013
$7.8M
Estimating Effects of Interventions in Longitudinal DataR01HL080644 · NHLBI · HARVARD UNIVERSITY (SCH OF PUBLIC HLTH) · PI HERNAN, MIGUEL · 2005 to 2013
$4.0M
NCI NIH HHS CA87969NCI NIH HHS P01 CA087969NHLBI NIH HHS HL080644NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL080644NIDDK NIH HHS DK58845NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK058845
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRandomized trials have examined short-term effects of lifestyle interventions for diabetes prevention only among high-risk individuals. Prospective studies have examined the associations between lifestyle factors and diabetes in healthy populations but have not characterized the intervention. We estimated the long-term effects of hypothetical lifestyle interventions on diabetes in a prospective study of healthy women, using the parametric g-formula.

methodsUsing data from the Nurses' Health Study, we followed 76,402 women from 1984 to 2008. We estimated the risk of type 2 diabetes under eight hypothetical interventions: quitting smoking, losing weight by 5% every 2 years if overweight/obese, exercising at least 30 minutes a day, eating less than three servings a week of red meat, eating at least two servings a day of whole grain, drinking two or more cups of coffee a day, drinking five or more grams of alcohol a day, and drinking less than one serving of soda a week.

resultsThe 24-year risk of diabetes was 9.6% under no intervention and 4.3% when all interventions were imposed (55% lower risk [95% confidence interval = 47 to 63%]). The most effective interventions were weight loss (24% lower risk), physical activity (19%), and moderate alcohol use (19%). Overweight/obese women would benefit the most, with 10.8 percentage point reduction in 24-year risk of diabetes. The validity of these estimates relies on the absence of unmeasured confounding, measurement error, and model misspecification.

conclusionA combination of dietary and nondietary lifestyle modifications, begun in midlife or later in relatively healthy women, could have prevented at least half of the cases of type 2 diabetes in this cohort of U.S. women.

Indexed as

DietExerciseLife StyleSmoking CessationWeight LossAdultAgedAge FactorsDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2FemaleFollow-Up StudiesHealth SurveysHumansKaplan-Meier EstimateMiddle AgedModels, Statistical

Identifiers

PMID23222556
PMCPMC3526834

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.