Evidence map›Paper›PMID 23221989›Full record

ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2013

Seasonality of meningitis in Africa and climate forcing: aerosols stand out.

L Agier, A Deroubaix, N Martiny, P Yaka, A Djibo, H Broutin

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 47 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
47citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

47 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
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  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. ModelingInfectious Disease Modelling · 2025
    Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Article
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  19. Climate change and emergency care in Africa: A scoping review.African journal of emergency medicine : Revue africaine de la medecine d'urgence · 2022
    Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

L AgierCombining Health Information, Computation and Statistics, School of Health and Medicine, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK. l.agier@lancaster.ac.uk
A Deroubaix
N Martiny
P Yaka
A Djibo
H Broutin

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Bacterial meningitis is an ongoing threat for the population of the African Meningitis Belt, a region characterized by the highest incidence rates worldwide. The determinants of the disease dynamics are still poorly understood; nevertheless, it is often advocated that climate and mineral dust have a large impact. Over the last decade, several studies have investigated this relationship at a large scale. In this analysis, we scaled down to the district-level weekly scale (which is used for in-year response to emerging epidemics), and used wavelet and phase analysis methods to define and compare the time-varying periodicities of meningitis, climate and dust in Niger. We mostly focused on detecting time-lags between the signals that were consistent across districts. Results highlighted the special case of dust in comparison to wind, humidity or temperature: a strong similarity between districts is noticed in the evolution of the time-lags between the seasonal component of dust and meningitis. This result, together with the assumption of dust damaging the pharyngeal mucosa and easing bacterial invasion, reinforces our confidence in dust forcing on meningitis seasonality. Dust data should now be integrated in epidemiological and forecasting models to make them more realistic and usable in a public health perspective.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeDisease OutbreaksModels, TheoreticalSeasonsAerosolsDustHumansIncidenceMeningitis, BacterialMineralsNigerParticulate MatterRespiratory MucosaTime FactorsAerosolsDustMineralsParticulate Matter

Identifiers

PMID23221989
PMCPMC3565698

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.