Evidence map›Paper›PMID 23196933›Full record

ArticleAIDS (London, England)2013

Have the explosive HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa been driven by higher community viral load?

Laith J Abu-Raddad, Ruanne V Barnabas, Holly Janes, Helen A Weiss, James G Kublin, Ira M Longini, Judith N Wasserheit, HIV Viral Load Working Group

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in AIDS (London, England), 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
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  12. Weak signal detection: A discrete window of opportunity for achieving 'Vision 90:90:90'?SAHARA J : journal of Social Aspects of HIV/AIDS Research Alliance · 2016
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Review
  16. Sources of HIV incidence among stable couples in sub-Saharan Africa.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2014
    Article
  17. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Laith J Abu-RaddadaInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College - Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar bDepartment of Public Health, Weill Cornell Medical College, Cornell University, New York, New York cVaccine and Infectious Disease Division dClinical Research Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Centre, Seattle, Washington eDepartment of Global Health fDepartment of Medicine gDepartment of Biostatistics hDepartment of Epidemiology, Schools of Medicine and Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA iMRC Tropical Epidemiology Group, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK jDepartment of Biostatistics kEmerging Pathogens Institute, Colleges of Public Health and Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA. *These authors contributed equally to this study.
Ruanne V Barnabas
Holly Janes
Helen A Weiss
James G Kublin
Ira M Longini
Judith N Wasserheit
HIV Viral Load Working Group

Funding

Leadership and Operations Center (LOC), AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG); LOC 1/UM1AI068636 · NIAID · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI Joseph J Eron, RAJESH T GANDHI · 2011 to 2026
$1073.1M
SDMC: HIV Vaccine Trials NetworkUM1AI068635 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Peter B. Gilbert, Yunda Huang · 2011 to 2026
$385.9M
Statistical and Data Management Center (SDMC), AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG)UM1AI068634 · NIAID · HARVARD UNIVERSITY D/B/A HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI Marlene Ann Cooper, Michael David Hughes · 2011 to 2026
$246.6M
WOMEN'S HEALTH AGENDAU01AI038858 · NIAID · SOCIAL AND SCIENTIFIC SYSTEMS, INC. · PI BENSON, CONSTANCE ANN · 1996 to 2008
$157.5M
AIDS Clinical Trials Group NetworkU01AI068636 · NIAID · SOCIAL AND SCIENTIFIC SYSTEMS, INC. · PI KURITZKES, DANIEL R. · 2006 to 2010
$147.1M
University of Washington/Fred Hutch Center for AIDS ResearchP30AI027757 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Kenneth Sherr · 1988 to 2026
$104.9M
STATISTICAL AND DATA MANAGEMENT CENTERU01AI038855 · NIAID · HARVARD UNIVERSITY (SCH OF PUBLIC HLTH) · PI HUGHES, MICHAEL DAVID · 1996 to 2006
$78.1M
Statistical and Data Management Center for the AIDS Clinical Trials GroupU01AI068634 · NIAID · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI HUGHES, MICHAEL DAVID · 2006 to 2010
$71.9M
Institute of Translational Health SciencesKL2TR000421 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI DISIS, MARY L. · 2012 to 2016
$12.6M
Institute for Translational Health Science (KL2)KL2RR025015 · NCRR · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI DISIS, MARY L. · 2007 to 2011
$9.3M
NCATS NIH HHS KL2 TR000421NCRR NIH HHS 5 KL2 RR025015NCRR NIH HHS KL2 RR025015NIAID NIH HHS AI 38855NIAID NIH HHS AI 38858NIAID NIH HHS AI 68634NIAID NIH HHS AI 68636NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI027757NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI038855NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI038858NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI068634NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI068636NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068634NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068635NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068636
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveThe HIV epidemic has carved contrasting trajectories around the world with sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) being most affected. We hypothesized that mean HIV-1 plasma RNA viral loads are higher in SSA than other areas, and that these elevated levels may contribute to the scale of epidemics in this region. DESIGN AND

methodsTo evaluate this hypothesis, we constructed a database of means of 71,668 viral load measurements from 44 cohorts in seven regions of the world. We used linear regression statistical models to estimate differences in viral load between regions. We also constructed and analyzed a mathematical model to describe the impact of the regional viral load differences on HIV epidemic trajectory.

resultsWe found substantial regional viral load heterogeneity. The mean viral load in SSA was 0.58 log(10) copies/ml higher than in North America (95% confidence interval 0.45-0.71); this represents about a four-fold increase. The highest mean viral loads were found in Southern and East Africa, whereas in Asia, Europe, North America, and South America, mean viral loads were comparable. Mathematical modeling indicated that conservatively 14% of HIV infections in a representative population in Kenya could be attributed to the enhanced infectiousness of patients with heightened viral load.

conclusionWe conclude that community viral load appears to be higher in SSA than in other regions and this may be a central driver of the massive HIV epidemics in this region. The elevated viral loads in SSA may reflect, among other factors, the high burden of co-infections or the preponderance of HIV-1 subtype C infection.

Indexed as

Viral LoadAfrica South of the SaharaFemaleHIV-1HIV InfectionsHumansMaleModels, TheoreticalPregnancyRNA, ViralRNA, Viral

Identifiers

PMID23196933
PMCPMC3725236

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.