ArticleSexually transmitted infections2012
Trends in HIV prevalence among young people in generalised epidemics: implications for monitoring the HIV epidemic.
Article in Sexually transmitted infections, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Programa Geração Biz, Mozambique: how did this adolescent health initiative grow from a pilot to a national programme, and what did it achieve?Reproductive health · 2015Pooled it
- Three decades of HIV epidemic dynamics in The Gambia: a comprehensive analysis of prevalence, incidence, and mortality trends, 1990-2024.AIDS research and therapy · 2026Article
- The declining trend in HIV prevalence from population-based surveys in Cameroon between 2004 and 2018: myth or reality in the universal test and treat era?BMC public health · 2023Article
- Article
- HIV trends and disparities by gender and urban-rural residence among adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa.Reproductive health · 2021Article
- Comparison of HIV Incidence in the Zimbabwe Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Survey (2015-2016) with Modeled Estimates: Progress Toward Epidemic Control.AIDS research and human retroviruses · 2020Article
- Mapping and characterising areas with high levels of HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa: A geospatial analysis of national survey data.PLoS medicine · 2020Article
- Contrasting HIV prevalence trends among young women and men in Zambia in the past 12 years: data from demographic and health surveys 2002-2014.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Improving estimates of district HIV prevalence and burden in South Africa using small area estimation techniques.PloS one · 2019Article
- Strengthening HIV surveillance: measurements to track the epidemic in real time.African journal of AIDS research : AJAR · 2016Article
- Seeking wider access to HIV testing for adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa.Pediatric research · 2016Review
- Risk factors for incident HIV infection among antenatal mothers in rural Eastern Cape, South Africa.Global health action · 2016Article
- Spatial clustering of measles cases during endemic (1998-2002) and epidemic (2010) periods in Lusaka, Zambia.BMC infectious diseases · 2015Article
- Trends in HIV acquisition, risk factors and prevention policies among youth in Uganda, 1999-2011.AIDS (London, England) · 2015Article
- Recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women and all women in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for HIV estimates.AIDS (London, England) · 2014Article
- Article
- Developments in the field of HIV estimates: methods, parameters and trends.Sexually transmitted infections · 2012Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundCountries measure trends in HIV incidence to assess the impact of HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Most countries have approximated trends in HIV incidence through modelled estimates or through trends in HIV prevalence among young people (aged 15-24 years) assuming they have recently become sexually active and have thus only been recently exposed to HIV.
methodsTrends in HIV incidence are described and results are compared using three proxy measures of incidence: HIV prevalence among young women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) in 22 countries; HIV prevalence among young male and female nationally representative household survey respondents in 14 countries; and modelled estimates of adult (ages 15-49 years) HIV incidence in 26 countries. The significance of changes in prevalence among ANC attendees and young survey respondents is tested.
resultsAmong 26 countries, 25 had evidence of some decline in HIV incidence and 15 showed statistically significant declines in either ANC data or survey data. Only in Mozambique did the direction of the trend in young ANC attendees differ from modelled adult incidence, and in Mali and Zambia trends among young men differed from trends in adult incidence. The magnitude of change differed by method.
conclusionsTrends in HIV prevalence among young people show encouraging declines. Changes in fertility patterns, HIV-infected children surviving to adulthood, and participation bias could affect future proxy measures of incidence trends.
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