ArticleSexually transmitted infections2012
Spline-based modelling of trends in the force of HIV infection, with application to the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package.
Article in Sexually transmitted infections, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Subnational HIV incidence trends in Malawi: large, heterogeneous declines across space.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Comparison of HIV prevalence among antenatal clinic attendees estimated from routine testing and unlinked anonymous testing.Statistics in biosciences · 2020Article
- The Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model and the r-hybrid model: new tools for estimating HIV incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa.AIDS (London, England) · 2019Article
- Estimating and projecting the number of new HIV diagnoses and incidence in Spectrum's case surveillance and vital registration tool.AIDS (London, England) · 2019Article
- Measuring and correcting bias in indirect estimates of under-5 mortality in populations affected by HIV/AIDS: a simulation study.BMC public health · 2019Article
- Estimating HIV incidence from surveillance data indicates a second wave of infections in Brazil.Epidemics · 2019Article
- Accounting for nonsampling error in estimates of HIV epidemic trends from antenatal clinic sentinel surveillance.AIDS (London, England) · 2017Article
- Empirical validation of the UNAIDS Spectrum model for subnational HIV estimates: case-study of children and adults in Manicaland, Zimbabwe.AIDS (London, England) · 2017Article
- Statistical models for incorporating data from routine HIV testing of pregnant women at antenatal clinics into HIV/AIDS epidemic estimates.AIDS (London, England) · 2017Article
- Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.The lancet. HIV · 2016Article
- A Comparison of South African National HIV Incidence Estimates: A Critical Appraisal of Different Methods.PloS one · 2015Article
- Assessing and adjusting for differences between HIV prevalence estimates derived from national population-based surveys and antenatal care surveillance, with applications for Spectrum 2013.AIDS (London, England) · 2014Article
- Incorporating incidence information within the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package framework: a study based on simulated incidence assay data.AIDS (London, England) · 2014Article
- Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013.AIDS (London, England) · 2014Article
- Embracing different approaches to estimating HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality.AIDS (London, England) · 2014Review
- Developments in the field of HIV estimates: methods, parameters and trends.Sexually transmitted infections · 2012Article
- Producing HIV estimates: from global advocacy to country planning and impact measurement.Global health actionReview
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2 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveWe previously developed a flexible specification of the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) that relied on splines to generate time-varying values for the force of infection parameter. Here, we test the feasibility of this approach for concentrated HIV/AIDS epidemics with very sparse data and compare two methods for making short-term future projections with the spline-based model.
methodsPenalised B-splines are used to model the average infection risk over time within the EPP 2011 modelling framework, which includes antiretroviral treatment effects and CD4 cell count progression, and is fit to sentinel surveillance prevalence data with a Bayesian algorithm. We compare two approaches for future projections: (1) an informative prior related to equilibrium prevalence and (2) a random walk formulation.
resultsThe spline-based model produced plausible fits across a range of epidemics, which included 87 subpopulations from 14 countries with concentrated epidemics and 75 subpopulations from 33 countries with generalised epidemics. The equilibrium prior and random walk approaches to future projections yielded similar prevalence estimates, and both performed well in tests of out-of-sample predictive validity for prevalence. In contrast, in some cases the two approaches varied substantially in estimates of incidence, with the random walk formulation avoiding extreme changes in incidence.
conclusionsA spline-based approach to allowing the force of infection parameter to vary over time within EPP 2011 is robust across a diverse array of epidemics, including concentrated ones with limited surveillance data. Future work on the EPP model should consider the impact that different modelling approaches have on estimates of HIV incidence.
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