ArticlePLoS medicine2012
The Brazil SimSmoke policy simulation model: the effect of strong tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in a middle income nation.
Article in PLoS medicine, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 93 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
93 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 240 citations in OpenAlex.
- Situation, Impacts, and Future Challenges of Tobacco Control Policies for Youth: An Explorative Systematic Policy Review.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2019Pooled it
- Text messaging interventions to support smoking cessation among hospitalized patients in Brazil: a randomized comparative effectiveness clinical trial.BMC research notes · 2022Trial
- Global Burden and Temporal Trends of Early-Onset Tracheal, Bronchial, and Lung Cancer: An Analysis of GLOBOCAN 2022 and GBD 2023 Data.Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2026Article
- Risk and Protective Factor Indicators Management Committee: methodological approach in the construction of indicators of the interagency health information network (Ripsa), 2023.Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- SimSmoke simulation models by educational status: past and future US trends and the potential role of policy.Tobacco control · 2025Article
- SimSmoke simulation models distinguished by race/ethnicity: past and future trends and the potential role of policy.Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Monographs · 2025Article
- Assessing the contributions of an urban population health initiative to shift political priority towards cardiovascular health: three case studies from Brazil, Mongolia and Senegal.BMC health services research · 2024Article
- Applicability of machine learning algorithm to predict the therapeutic intervention success in Brazilian smokers.PloS one · 2024Article
- External validation of the parsimonious EuroLung risk models: analysis of the Brazilian Lung Cancer Registry.Jornal brasileiro de pneumologia : publicacao oficial da Sociedade Brasileira de Pneumologia e Tisilogia · 2024Article
- Comparison of smoking prevalence in Canada before and after nicotine vaping product access using the SimSmoke model.Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique · 2023Article
- Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories in Brazil.American journal of preventive medicine · 2023Article
- Summary and Concluding Remarks: Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories.American journal of preventive medicine · 2023Article
- The Rise of Gastrointestinal Cancers as a Global Phenomenon: Unhealthy Behavior or Progress?International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Review
- Magnitude of risk factors for chronic noncommunicable diseases in adolescents and young adults in Brazil: A population-based study.PloS one · 2023Article
- Sex Differences in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Brazil between 1996 and 2019.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Epidemiological study on the lip and oral cavity cancer in Brazil: connecting science and clinical applicability.Revista da Associacao Medica Brasileira (1992) · 2022Article
- Colposcopic Findings and Diagnosis in Low-Income Brazilian Women with ASC-H pap Smear Results.Revista brasileira de ginecologia e obstetricia : revista da Federacao Brasileira das Sociedades de Ginecologia e Obstetricia · 2022Article
- A modeling analysis to compare eligibility strategies for lung cancer screening in Brazil.EClinicalMedicine · 2021Article
- Susceptibility of lung cancer patients to COVID-19: A review of the pandemic data from multiple nationalities.Thoracic cancer · 2021Review
- A Case-Control Study of Paracoccidioidomycosis in Women: The Hormonal Protection Revisited.Journal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
33 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundBrazil has reduced its smoking rate by about 50% in the last 20 y. During that time period, strong tobacco control policies were implemented. This paper estimates the effect of these stricter policies on smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality, and the effect that additional policies may have. METHODS AND
findingsThe model was developed using the SimSmoke tobacco control policy model. Using policy, population, and smoking data for Brazil, the model assesses the effect on premature deaths of cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, mass media campaigns, marketing restrictions, packaging requirements, cessation treatment programs, and youth access restrictions. We estimate the effect of past policies relative to a counterfactual of policies kept to 1989 levels, and the effect of stricter future policies. Male and female smoking prevalence in Brazil have fallen by about half since 1989, which represents a 46% (lower and upper bounds: 28%-66%) relative reduction compared to the 2010 prevalence under the counterfactual scenario of policies held to 1989 levels. Almost half of that 46% reduction is explained by price increases, 14% by smoke-free air laws, 14% by marketing restrictions, 8% by health warnings, 6% by mass media campaigns, and 10% by cessation treatment programs. As a result of the past policies, a total of almost 420,000 (260,000-715,000) deaths had been averted by 2010, increasing to almost 7 million (4.5 million-10.3 million) deaths projected by 2050. Comparing future implementation of a set of stricter policies to a scenario with 2010 policies held constant, smoking prevalence by 2050 could be reduced by another 39% (29%-54%), and 1.3 million (0.9 million-2.0 million) out of 9 million future premature deaths could be averted.
conclusionsBrazil provides one of the outstanding public health success stories in reducing deaths due to smoking, and serves as a model for other low and middle income nations. However, a set of stricter policies could further reduce smoking and save many additional lives. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.