Evidence map›Paper›PMID 2312306›Full record

ArticleHealth services research1990

What is too much variation? The null hypothesis in small-area analysis.

P Diehr, K Cain, F Connell, E Volinn

Abstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in Health services research, 1990. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 52 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
52citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

52 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. The Swiss health care atlas-relaunch in scale.Research in health services & regions · 2023
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  13. Regional variation in hospital care at the end-of-life of Dutch patients with lung cancer exists and is not correlated with primary and long-term care.International journal for quality in health care : journal of the International Society for Quality in Health Care · 2020
    Article
  14. Patterns of regional variation of opioid prescribing in primary care in England: a retrospective observational study.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2018
    Observational
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

P DiehrDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle 98195.
K Cain
F Connell
E Volinn

Funding

STATISTICAL METHODS IN CANCER EPIDEMIOLOGYR01CA040644 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI BRESLOW, NORMAN E · 1985 to 2004
$793k
NCI NIH HHS R01-CA 40644
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A small-area analysis (SAA) in health services research often calculates surgery rates for several small areas, compares the largest rate to the smallest, notes that the difference is large, and attempts to explain this discrepancy as a function of service availability, physician practice styles, or other factors. SAAs are often difficult to interpret because there is little theoretical basis for determining how much variation would be expected under the null hypothesis that all of the small areas have similar underlying surgery rates and that the observed variation is due to chance. We developed a computer program to simulate the distribution of several commonly used descriptive statistics under the null hypothesis, and used it to examine the variability in rates among the counties of the state of Washington. The expected variability when the null hypothesis is true is surprisingly large, and becomes worse for procedures with low incidence, for smaller populations, when there is variability among the populations of the counties, and when readmissions are possible. The characteristics of four descriptive statistics were studied and compared. None was uniformly good, but the chi-square statistic had better performance than the others. When we reanalyzed five journal articles that presented sufficient data, the results were usually statistically significant. Since SAA research today is tending to deal with low-incidence events, smaller populations, and measures where readmissions are possible, more research is needed on the distribution of small-area statistics under the null hypothesis. New standards are proposed for the presentation of SAA results.

Indexed as

Computer SimulationHealth Services ResearchModels, StatisticalAge FactorsCatchment Area, HealthData Interpretation, StatisticalFemaleHumansMaleMethodsPeriodicals as TopicPractice Patterns, Physicians'Sex FactorsSoftwareSurgical Procedures, OperativeWashington

Identifiers

PMID2312306
PMCPMC1065599

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.