Evidence map›Paper›PMID 23071574›Full record

ArticlePloS one2012

Reproducibility, performance, and clinical utility of a genetic risk prediction model for prostate cancer in Japanese.

Shusuke Akamatsu, Atsushi Takahashi, Ryo Takata, Michiaki Kubo, Takahiro Inoue, Takashi Morizono, Tatsuhiko Tsunoda, Naoyuki Kamatani, Christopher A Haiman, Peggy Wan and 9 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Multigene panels in prostate cancer risk assessment: a systematic review.Genetics in medicine : official journal of the American College of Medical Genetics · 2016
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Shusuke AkamatsuLaboratory for Biomarker Development, Center for Genomic Medicine, RIKEN, Tokyo, Japan.
Atsushi Takahashi
Ryo Takata
Michiaki Kubo
Takahiro Inoue
Takashi Morizono
Tatsuhiko Tsunoda
Naoyuki Kamatani
Christopher A Haiman
Peggy Wan
Gary K Chen
Loic Le Marchand
Laurence N Kolonel
Brian E Henderson
Tomoaki Fujioka
Tomonori Habuchi
Yusuke Nakamura
Osamu Ogawa
Hidewaki Nakagawa

Funding

GENETIC SUSCEPTIBILITY TO CANCER IN MULTIETHNIC COHORTSR01CA063464 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA · PI HENDERSON, BRIAN E · 2001 to 2005
$23.2M
Multiethnic Cohort Study of Diet and CancerR37CA054281 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII AT MANOA · PI KOLONEL, LAURENCE N. · 2003 to 2012
$23.2M
Epidemiological and Clinical Translational Studies Post Genome-Wide AssociationU19CA148537 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA · PI EASTON, DOUGLAS FREDERICK, EELES, ROSALIND · 2010 to 2014
$10.4M
MULTIETHNIC/MINORITY COHORT STUDY OF DIET AND CANCERR01CA054281 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII AT MANOA · PI KOLONEL, LAURENCE N. · 1993 to 2002
$4.5M
A Multiethnic Genome-Wide Scan of Prostate CancerU01HG004726 · NHGRI · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA · PI HAIMAN, CHRISTOPHER ALAN · 2008 to 2009
$1.2M
GENETIC SUSCEPTIBILITY TO CANCER IN MULTIETHNIC COHORTSU01CA063464 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA · PI HENDERSON, BRIAN E · 1996 to 2000
$943k
NCI NIH HHS CA148537NCI NIH HHS CA54281NCI NIH HHS CA63464NCI NIH HHS R01 CA054281NCI NIH HHS R01 CA063464NCI NIH HHS R37 CA054281NCI NIH HHS U01 CA063464NCI NIH HHS U19 CA148537NHGRI NIH HHS HG004726NHGRI NIH HHS U01 HG004726
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Prostate specific antigen (PSA) is widely used as a diagnostic biomarker for prostate cancer (PC). However, due to its low predictive performance, many patients without PC suffer from the harms of unnecessary prostate needle biopsies. The present study aims to evaluate the reproducibility and performance of a genetic risk prediction model in Japanese and estimate its utility as a diagnostic biomarker in a clinical scenario. We created a logistic regression model incorporating 16 SNPs that were significantly associated with PC in a genome-wide association study of Japanese population using 689 cases and 749 male controls. The model was validated by two independent sets of Japanese samples comprising 3,294 cases and 6,281 male controls. The areas under curve (AUC) of the model were 0.679, 0.655, and 0.661 for the samples used to create the model and those used for validation. The AUCs were not significantly altered in samples with PSA 1-10 ng/ml. 24.2% and 9.7% of the patients had odds ratio <0.5 (low risk) or >2 (high risk) in the model. Assuming the overall positive rate of prostate needle biopsies to be 20%, the positive biopsy rates were 10.7% and 42.4% for the low and high genetic risk groups respectively. Our genetic risk prediction model for PC was highly reproducible, and its predictive performance was not influenced by PSA. The model could have a potential to affect clinical decision when it is applied to patients with gray-zone PSA, which should be confirmed in future clinical studies.

Indexed as

Genetic Predisposition to DiseaseHumansJapanMaleProstate-Specific AntigenProstatic NeoplasmsReproducibility of ResultsRisk FactorsROC CurveProstate-Specific Antigen

Identifiers

PMID23071574
PMCPMC3468627

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.