Evidence map›Paper›PMID 23061807›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2012

Development of a resource modelling tool to support decision makers in pandemic influenza preparedness: The AsiaFluCap Simulator.

Mart Lambertus Stein, James W Rudge, Richard Coker, Charlie van der Weijden, Ralf Krumkamp, Piya Hanvoravongchai, Irwin Chavez, Weerasak Putthasri, Bounlay Phommasack, Wiku Adisasmito and 5 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC public health, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
1.8field-weighted citation impact, top 16% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 40 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
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  9. Surgery triage during the COVID-19 pandemic.ANZ journal of surgery · 2020
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors at 9 institutions in 7 countries.

Mart Lambertus SteinNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Bilthoven, 3720, BA, The Netherlands. mart.stein@rivm.nl
James W Rudge
Richard Coker
Charlie van der Weijden
Ralf Krumkamp
Piya Hanvoravongchai
Irwin Chavez
Weerasak Putthasri
Bounlay Phommasack
Wiku Adisasmito
Sok Touch
Le Minh Sat
Yu-Chen Hsu
Mirjam Kretzschmar
Aura Timen
Mahidol University · THNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment · NLChulalongkorn University · THMinistry of Health · KHMinistry of Health · LAMinistry of Public Health · THMinistry of Science and Technology · VNUniversität Hamburg · DEUniversity of Indonesia · ID

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundHealth care planning for pandemic influenza is a challenging task which requires predictive models by which the impact of different response strategies can be evaluated. However, current preparedness plans and simulations exercises, as well as freely available simulation models previously made for policy makers, do not explicitly address the availability of health care resources or determine the impact of shortages on public health. Nevertheless, the feasibility of health systems to implement response measures or interventions described in plans and trained in exercises depends on the available resource capacity. As part of the AsiaFluCap project, we developed a comprehensive and flexible resource modelling tool to support public health officials in understanding and preparing for surges in resource demand during future pandemics.

resultsThe AsiaFluCap Simulator is a combination of a resource model containing 28 health care resources and an epidemiological model. The tool was built in MS Excel© and contains a user-friendly interface which allows users to select mild or severe pandemic scenarios, change resource parameters and run simulations for one or multiple regions. Besides epidemiological estimations, the simulator provides indications on resource gaps or surpluses, and the impact of shortages on public health for each selected region. It allows for a comparative analysis of the effects of resource availability and consequences of different strategies of resource use, which can provide guidance on resource prioritising and/or mobilisation. Simulation results are displayed in various tables and graphs, and can also be easily exported to GIS software to create maps for geographical analysis of the distribution of resources.

conclusionsThe AsiaFluCap Simulator is freely available software (http://www.cdprg.org) which can be used by policy makers, policy advisors, donors and other stakeholders involved in preparedness for providing evidence based and illustrative information on health care resource capacities during future pandemics. The tool can inform both preparedness plans and simulation exercises and can help increase the general understanding of dynamics in resource capacities during a pandemic. The combination of a mathematical model with multiple resources and the linkage to GIS for creating maps makes the tool unique compared to other available software.

Indexed as

SoftwareAsiaComputer SimulationDecision MakingDisaster PlanningHealth Care RationingHumansInfluenza, HumanModels, TheoreticalPandemicsPublic Health Administration

Identifiers

PMID23061807
PMCPMC3509032
OpenAlexW2099069389

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.