ArticleCancer research2013
Impact of tumor progression on cancer incidence curves.
Article in Cancer research, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 65 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
65 citing papers in PubMed, 111 citations in OpenAlex.
- Estimating the carcinogenesis timelines in early-onset versus late-onset cancers and changes across birth cohorts.Science advances · 2026Article
- A fast numerical integration scheme for clonal expansion processes on graphs.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Should Multi-Cancer Early Detection Testing Replace Guideline-Recommended Colorectal Cancer Screening? A Comparative Modeling Analysis.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Leveraging the Electronic Health Record for Early Detection of Pancreatic Cancer Among 9.4 Million US Veterans.Clinical and translational gastroenterology · 2026Article
- Neoantigen evolution and response to checkpoint inhibitor immunotherapy in colorectal cancer.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Modeling Early-Onset Cancer Kinetics Reveals Changes in Underlying Risk and the Impact of Population Screening.Cancer research · 2025Article
- Trends in uterine cancer incidence and mortality: insights from a natural history model.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2025Article
- Estimating the carcinogenesis timelines in early-onset versus late-onset cancers and changes across birth cohorts.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Modeling early-onset cancer kinetics to study changes in underlying risk, detection, and impact of population screening.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Multistage carcinogenesis in occupational cholangiocarcinoma: the impact of clonal expansion and risk estimation.Genes and environment : the official journal of the Japanese Environmental Mutagen Society · 2024Article
- Minimum latency effects for cancer associated with exposures to radiation or other carcinogens.British journal of cancer · 2024Article
- Quantifying the potential benefits of early detection for pancreatic cancer through a counterfactual simulation modeling analysis.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- AKR1B10 regulates M2 macrophage polarization to promote the malignant phenotype of gastric cancer.Bioscience reports · 2023Article
- PRKAA1 predicts prognosis and is associated with immune characteristics in gastric cancer.Functional & integrative genomics · 2023Article
- Autoimmune alleles at the major histocompatibility locus modify melanoma susceptibility.American journal of human genetics · 2023Article
- Mathematical modeling the order of driver gene mutations in colorectal cancer.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Concepts of association between cancer and ionising radiation: accounting for specific biological mechanisms.Radiation and environmental biophysics · 2023Article
- Prognostic Value of Liver Kinase B1 (LKB1) in Gastric Cancer-Associated Tumor Microenvironment Immunity.Biomedicines · 2023Article
- Shape-specific characterization of colorectal adenoma growth and transition to cancer with stochastic cell-based models.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Modeling age-specific incidence of colon cancer via niche competition.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
5 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Cancer arises through a multistage process, but it is not fully clear how this process influences the age-specific incidence curve. Studies of colorectal and pancreatic cancer using the multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) model have identified two phases of the incidence curves. One phase is linear, beginning about age of 60 years, suggesting that at least two rare rate-limiting mutations occur before clonal expansion of premalignant cells. A second phase is exponential, seen in early-onset cancers occurring before the age of 60 years that are associated with premalignant clonal expansion. Here, we extend the MSCE model to include clonal expansion of malignant cells, an advance that permits study of the effects of tumor growth and extinction on the incidence of colorectal, gastric, pancreatic, and esophageal adenocarcinomas in the digestive tract. After adjusting the age-specific incidence for birth-cohort and calendar-year trends, we found that initiating mutations and premalignant cell kinetics can explain the primary features of the incidence curve. However, we also found that the incidence data of these cancers harbored information on the kinetics of malignant clonal expansion before clinical detection, including tumor growth rates and extinction probabilities on three characteristic time scales for tumor progression. In addition, the data harbored information on the mean sojourn times for premalignant clones until occurrence of either the first malignant cell or the first persistent (surviving) malignant clone. Finally, the data also harbored information on the mean sojourn time of persistent malignant clones to the time of diagnosis. In conclusion, cancer incidence curves can harbor significant information about hidden processes of tumor initiation, premalignant clonal expansion, and malignant transformation, and even some limited information on tumor growth before clinical detection.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.