ArticleSexually transmitted infections2012
Modelling national HIV/AIDS epidemics: revised approach in the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2011.
Article in Sexually transmitted infections, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed.
- Beyond Bayesian Inference: The Correlation Integral Likelihood Framework and Gradient Flow Methods for Deterministic Sampling.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- Probabilistic HIV recency classification-a logistic regression without labeled individual level training data.The annals of applied statistics · 2023Article
- Bayesian inference of a non-local proliferation model.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States.PloS one · 2021Article
- Comparison of HIV prevalence among antenatal clinic attendees estimated from routine testing and unlinked anonymous testing.Statistics in biosciences · 2020Article
- Modeling methods for estimating HIV incidence: a mathematical review.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2020Review
- The Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model and the r-hybrid model: new tools for estimating HIV incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa.AIDS (London, England) · 2019Article
- Estimating and projecting the number of new HIV diagnoses and incidence in Spectrum's case surveillance and vital registration tool.AIDS (London, England) · 2019Article
- Using a HIV registry to develop accurate estimates for the HIV care cascade - the Singapore experience.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2019Article
- The importance of choice disability and structural intervention in the HIV epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa.PloS one · 2017Article
- Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts.Statistical analysis and data mining · 2016Article
- Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.The lancet. HIV · 2016Article
- A Comparison of South African National HIV Incidence Estimates: A Critical Appraisal of Different Methods.PloS one · 2015Article
- Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013.AIDS (London, England) · 2014Article
- Incorporating incidence information within the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package framework: a study based on simulated incidence assay data.AIDS (London, England) · 2014Article
- HIV case reporting in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2014Article
- Variants in ZNRD1 gene predict HIV-1/AIDS disease progression in a Han Chinese population in Taiwan.PloS one · 2013Article
- Developments in the field of HIV estimates: methods, parameters and trends.Sexually transmitted infections · 2012Article
- Spline-based modelling of trends in the force of HIV infection, with application to the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package.Sexually transmitted infections · 2012Article
- A new infectious disease model for estimating and projecting HIV/AIDS epidemics.Sexually transmitted infections · 2012Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveUnited Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS reports regularly on estimated levels and trends in HIV/AIDS epidemics, which are evaluated using an epidemiological model within the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP). The relatively simple four-parameter model of HIV incidence used in EPP through the previous round of estimates has encountered challenges when attempting to fit certain data series on prevalence over time, particularly in settings with long running epidemics where prevalence has increased recently. To address this, the most recent version of the modelling package (EPP 2011) includes a more flexible epidemiological model that allows HIV infection risk to vary over time. This paper describes the technical details of this flexible approach to modelling HIV transmission dynamics within EPP 2011. METHODOLOGY: For the flexible modelling approach, the force of infection parameter, r, is allowed to vary over time through a random walk formulation, and an informative prior distribution is used to improve short-term projections beyond the last year of data. Model parameters are estimated using a Bayesian estimation approach in which models are fit to HIV seroprevalence data from surveillance sites.
resultsThis flexible model can yield better estimates of HIV prevalence over time in situations where the classic EPP model has difficulties, such as in Uganda, where prevalence is no longer falling. Based on formal out-of-sample projection tests, the flexible modelling approach also improves predictions and CIs for extrapolations beyond the last observed data point.
conclusionsWe recommend use of a flexible modelling approach where data are sufficient (eg, where at least 5 years of observations are available), and particularly where an epidemic is beyond its peak.
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