ArticlePloS one2012
Quantifying transmission of highly pathogenic and low pathogenicity H7N1 avian influenza in turkeys.
Article in PloS one, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 40 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review of mechanistic models used to study avian influenza virus transmission and control.Veterinary research · 2023Pooled it
- Pooled it
- When hosts gather: how extreme seasonal aggregation affects epidemiological outcomes.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Hemagglutinin and neuraminidase of a non-pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus coevolved during the acquisition of intranasal pathogenicity in chickens.Archives of virology · 2024Article
- Article
- Article
- Article
- Parallel evolution in the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza A viruses.Nature communications · 2020Article
- Dynamic Perspectives on the Search for a Universal Influenza Vaccine.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Estimating within-flock transmission rate parameter for H5N2 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in Minnesota turkey flocks during the 2015 epizootic.Epidemiology and infection · 2019Article
- Assessment of low pathogenic avian influenza virus transmission via raw poultry meat and raw table eggs.EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority · 2018Article
- Overwintering of West Nile virus in a bird community with a communal crow roost.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Avian influenza.EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority · 2017Article
- Assessment of listing and categorisation of animal diseases within the framework of the Animal Health Law (Regulation (EU) No 2016/429): low pathogenic avian influenza.EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority · 2017Article
- Controlling viral outbreaks: Quantitative strategies.PloS one · 2017Article
- Who Is Spreading Avian Influenza in the Moving Duck Flock Farming Network of Indonesia?PloS one · 2016Article
- Extended transmission of two H5/H7 low pathogenic avian influenza viruses in chickens.Epidemiology and infection · 2015Article
- Characterising two-pathogen competition in spatially structured environments.Scientific reports · 2015Article
- Evidence of trade-offs shaping virulence evolution in an emerging wildlife pathogen.Journal of evolutionary biology · 2014Article
- Using quantitative disease dynamics as a tool for guiding response to avian influenza in poultry in the United States of America.Preventive veterinary medicine · 2014Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry can be devastating, yet many of the basic epidemiological parameters have not been accurately characterised. In 1999-2000 in Northern Italy, outbreaks of H7N1 low pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAI) were followed by the emergence of H7N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI). This study investigates the transmission dynamics in turkeys of representative HPAI and LPAI H7N1 virus strains from this outbreak in an experimental setting, allowing direct comparison of the two strains. The fitted transmission rates for the two strains are similar: 2.04 (1.5-2.7) per day for HPAI, 2.01 (1.6-2.5) per day for LPAI. However, the mean infectious period is far shorter for HPAI (1.47 (1.3-1.7) days) than for LPAI (7.65 (7.0-8.3) days), due to the rapid death of infected turkeys. Hence the basic reproductive ratio, [Formula: see text] is significantly lower for HPAI (3.01 (2.2-4.0)) than for LPAI (15.3 (11.8-19.7)). The comparison of transmission rates and [Formula: see text] are critically important in relation to understanding how HPAI might emerge from LPAI. Two competing hypotheses for how transmission rates vary with population size are tested by fitting competing models to experiments with differing numbers of turkeys. A model with frequency-dependent transmission gives a significantly better fit to experimental data than density-dependent transmission. This has important implications for extrapolating experimental results from relatively small numbers of birds to the commercial poultry flock size, and for how control, including vaccination, might scale with flock size.
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