ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2012
Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 65 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
65 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Pooled it
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- Global burden of thyroid cancer in males: a comprehensive analysis of incidence, mortality, and risk factors from 1990 to 2040.Frontiers in oncology · 2026Article
- A modal age at death approach to forecasting adult mortality.Population studies · 2025Article
- Uncovering migration systems through spatio-temporal tensor co-clustering.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Climate change and population: Demographic perspectives on the 21st century's defining challenge.Vienna yearbook of population research · 2024Article
- Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections.Demography · 2023Article
- Long-term probabilistic temperature projections for all locations.Climate dynamics · 2023Article
- Socioeconomic and Contextual Differentials in Memory Decline: A Cross-Country Investigation Between England and China.The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · 2023Article
- Ciliated (FOXJ1Cells · 2022Article
- Demography: Fast and Slow.Population and development review · 2022Article
- Estimating impact likelihoods from probabilistic projections of climate and socio-economic change using impact response surfaces.Climate risk management · 2022Article
- Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy.Journal of official statistics · 2021Article
- Demographic perspectives on the rise of longevity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- Accounting for Smoking in Forecasting Mortality and Life Expectancy.The annals of applied statistics · 2021Article
- Severe hypoglycaemia under abemaciclib administration in a patient with breast cancer: A case report.Molecular and clinical oncology · 2021Article
- Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability.Health research policy and systems · 2021Article
- Predictors of caregiver burden in aged caregivers of demented older patients.BMC geriatrics · 2021Article
- Country-based rate of emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 °C target.Communications earth & environment · 2021Article
5 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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5 authors.
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Abstract
Projections of countries' future populations, broken down by age and sex, are widely used for planning and research. They are mostly done deterministically, but there is a widespread need for probabilistic projections. We propose a bayesian method for probabilistic population projections for all countries. The total fertility rate and female and male life expectancies at birth are projected probabilistically using bayesian hierarchical models estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo using United Nations population data for all countries. These are then converted to age-specific rates and combined with a cohort component projection model. This yields probabilistic projections of any population quantity of interest. The method is illustrated for five countries of different demographic stages, continents and sizes. The method is validated by an out of sample experiment in which data from 1950-1990 are used for estimation, and applied to predict 1990-2010. The method appears reasonably accurate and well calibrated for this period. The results suggest that the current United Nations high and low variants greatly underestimate uncertainty about the number of oldest old from about 2050 and that they underestimate uncertainty for high fertility countries and overstate uncertainty for countries that have completed the demographic transition and whose fertility has started to recover towards replacement level, mostly in Europe. The results also indicate that the potential support ratio (persons aged 20-64 per person aged 65+) will almost certainly decline dramatically in most countries over the coming decades.
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