ArticleBMC research notes2012
Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment.
Article in BMC research notes, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Accounting for Capacity Constraints in Economic Evaluations of Precision Medicine: A Systematic Review.PharmacoEconomics · 2019Pooled it
- A Systematic Review of Health Economic Evaluations of Diagnostic Biomarkers.Applied health economics and health policy · 2016Pooled it
- A case study integrating scenario thinking with dialysis policymaking in Thailand.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Value-based health care frameworks for the health technology assessments of "omics" technologies: an international survey.International journal of technology assessment in health care · 2025Article
- Incorporating Resource Constraints in Health Economic Evaluations: Overview and Methodological Considerations.PharmacoEconomics - open · 2025Article
- Futurology of the Situation of Public Hospitals in Iran Until 2032 : Futurology of the Situation of Public Hospitals in Iran until 2032.Galen medical journal · 2025Article
- Development of the PICCOTEAM Reference Case for Economic Evaluation of Precision Medicine.International journal of health policy and management · 2025Article
- A scenario-drafting study to explore potential future implementation pathways of circulating tumor DNA testing in oncology.Molecular oncology · 2024Article
- Perceptions and Attitudes Regarding Medical Device Development in Canada Among Canadian Innovators: A Qualitative Study.PharmacoEconomics - open · 2023Article
- Quantifying the Impact of Capacity Constraints in Economic Evaluations: An Application in Precision Medicine.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2022Article
- Whole genome sequencing in oncology: using scenario drafting to explore future developments.BMC cancer · 2021Review
- A Scoping Review of Different Methods of Assessing the Impact of New Medical Technologies at Early Stages of Development.Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran · 2021Article
- Implementing Interventions with Varying Marginal Cost-Effectiveness: An Application in Precision Medicine.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2020Article
- Use of Decision Analysis and Economic Evaluation in Breast Reconstruction: A Systematic Review.Plastic and reconstructive surgery. Global open · 2020Article
- A Web-Based Communication Platform to Improve Home Care Services in Norway (DigiHelse): Pilot Study.JMIR formative research · 2020Article
- Article
- The premarket assessment of the cost-effectiveness of a predictive technology "Straticyte™" for the early detection of oral cancer: a decision analytic model.Health economics review · 2017Article
- Scenario drafting for early technology assessment of next generation sequencing in clinical oncology.BMC cancer · 2016Article
- Innovations that reach the patient: early health technology assessment and improving the chances of coverage and implementation.Ecancermedicalscience · 2016Article
- Using the scenario method in the context of health and health care--a scoping review.BMC medical research methodology · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundHealth Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy.
methodsTo incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake) were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005) until the future (2020).
resultsIn 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY), meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness.
conclusionsWhen optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process-uncertainty by means of scenario drafting into a decision model may reveal unanticipated developments and can demonstrate a range of possible cost-effectiveness outcomes. The effect of scenarios give additional information on the speed with cost effectiveness might be reached and thus provide a more realistic picture for policy makers, opinion leaders and manufacturers.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.