ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis2012
Chapter 8: The FHCRC lung cancer model.
Article in Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 25 citations in OpenAlex.
- Benefits and harms of lung cancer screening strategies in Argentina: a modeling study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Accelerating discovery of cancer causes for prevention in the era of rising early-onset cancers.Cell · 2026Review
- Development and validation of a histology-specific natural history model of ovarian cancer.American journal of obstetrics and gynecology · 2025Article
- A Scoping Review on Calibration Methods for Cancer Simulation Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- The NCC mathematical modeling framework for decision-making of six major cancers.Journal of the National Cancer Center · 2023Article
- Risk Model-Based Lung Cancer Screening : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.Annals of internal medicine · 2023Article
- Cost-effectiveness Evaluation of the 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation for Lung Cancer Screening.JAMA oncology · 2021Article
- A Comparative Modeling Analysis of Risk-Based Lung Cancer Screening Strategies.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2020Article
- Predicting the Epidemiological Dynamics of Lung Cancer in Japan.Journal of clinical medicine · 2019Article
- Smoking and Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States From 2015 to 2065: A Comparative Modeling Approach.Annals of internal medicine · 2018Article
- Article
- Risk prediction models for selection of lung cancer screening candidates: A retrospective validation study.PLoS medicine · 2017Article
- Comparison of Smoking History Patterns Among African American and White Cohorts in the United States Born 1890 to 1990.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2016Article
- Chapter 12: Yale lung cancer model.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2012Article
- Chapter 13: CISNET lung models: comparison of model assumptions and model structures.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2012Article
- Chapter 6: Lung cancer in never smokers: epidemiology and risk prediction models.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2012Article
- Chapter 5: Actual and counterfactual smoking prevalence rates in the U.S. population via microsimulation.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2012Article
- Chapter 4: Development of the counterfactual smoking histories used to assess the effects of tobacco control.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2012Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
As a member of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET), the lung cancer (LC) group at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (FHCRC) developed a model for evaluating U.S. lung cancer mortality trends and the impact of changing tobacco consumption. Model components include a biologically based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model; a smoking simulator to generate smoking histories and other cause mortality; and adjustments for period and birth cohort to improve calibration to U.S. LC mortality. The TSCE model was first calibrated to five substantial cohorts: British doctors, American Cancer Society CPS-I and CPS-II, Health Professionals' Follow-Up Study (HPFS), and Nurses' Health Study (NHS). The NHS and HPFS cohorts included the most detailed smoking histories and were chosen to represent the effects of smoking on U.S. LC mortality. The calibrated TSCE model and smoking simulator were used to simulate U.S. LC mortality. Further adjustments were necessary to account for unknown factors. This provided excellent fits between simulated and observed U.S. LC mortality for ages 30-84 and calendar years 1975-2000. The FHCRC LC model may be used to study the effects of public health information on U.S. LC trends and the impact of tobacco control policy. For example, we estimated that over 500,000 males and 200,000 females avoided LC death between 1975 and 2000 due to increasing awareness since the mid 1950s of the harmful effects of smoking. We estimated that 1.1 million male and 0.6 million female LC deaths were avoidable if smokers quit smoking in 1965.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.