Evidence map›Paper›PMID 22848412›Full record

Trial reportPloS one2012

Genetic markers enhance coronary risk prediction in men: the MORGAM prospective cohorts.

Maria F Hughes, Olli Saarela, Jan Stritzke, Frank Kee, Kaisa Silander, Norman Klopp, Jukka Kontto, Juha Karvanen, Christina Willenborg, Veikko Salomaa and 17 more

Registry-linked trialOpen access · goldAbstract readClinical TrialMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Trial report in PloS one, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT02146872 (Premature Coronary Artery Disease - Clinical and Molecular Genetic Aspects), which is not on this map. Cited by 47 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
47citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
9.3field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT02146872 unknown statusnot on this mapstarted 2014, after this paper: background citation

Premature Coronary Artery Disease - Clinical and Molecular Genetic Aspects

TypeobservationalSponsorAarhus University Hospital SkejbyRan2014 to 2016Enrolled400ConditionsCoronary Artery Disease, Myocardial Infarction, Atherosclerosis
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

47 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 122 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Genomic prediction of coronary heart disease.European heart journal · 2016
    Pooled it
  2. Guideline
  3. Pooled it
  4. Assessing genetic risk factors for early-onset coronary artery disease in Iranians.Research and practice in thrombosis and haemostasis · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Genetic and modifiable risk factors combine multiplicatively in common disease.Clinical research in cardiology : official journal of the German Cardiac Society · 2023
    Article
  8. Review
  9. Review
  10. Review
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Risk prediction of atrial fibrillation in the community combining biomarkers and genetics.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2021
    Article
  14. Genetic Risk Score for Coronary Heart Disease: Review.Journal of personalized medicine · 2020
    Review
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

27 authors at 12 institutions in 6 countries.

Maria F HughesUKCRC Centre of Excellence for Public Health, Queens University of Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom. maria.hughes@qub.ac.uk
Olli Saarela
Jan Stritzke
Frank Kee
Kaisa Silander
Norman Klopp
Jukka Kontto
Juha Karvanen
Christina Willenborg
Veikko Salomaa
Jarmo Virtamo
Phillippe Amouyel
Dominique Arveiler
Jean Ferrières
Per-Gunner Wiklund
Jens Baumert
Barbara Thorand
Patrick Diemert
David-Alexandre Trégouët
Christian Hengstenberg
Annette Peters
Alun Evans
Wolfgang Koenig
Jeanette Erdmann
Nilesh J Samani
Kari Kuulasmaa
Heribert Schunkert
Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare · FIUniversity of Lübeck · DEHelmholtz Zentrum München · DEInserm · FRQueen's University Belfast · GBInstitute for Molecular Medicine Finland · FIQueens University · BDUmeå University · SEUniversität Ulm · DEUniversité de Strasbourg · FRUniversity of Leicester · GBUniversity of Regensburg · DE

Funding

British Heart Foundation
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMore accurate coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction, specifically in middle-aged men, is needed to reduce the burden of disease more effectively. We hypothesised that a multilocus genetic risk score could refine CHD prediction beyond classic risk scores and obtain more precise risk estimates using a prospective cohort design.

methodsUsing data from nine prospective European cohorts, including 26,221 men, we selected in a case-cohort setting 4,818 healthy men at baseline, and used Cox proportional hazards models to examine associations between CHD and risk scores based on genetic variants representing 13 genomic regions. Over follow-up (range: 5-18 years), 1,736 incident CHD events occurred. Genetic risk scores were validated in men with at least 10 years of follow-up (632 cases, 1361 non-cases). Genetic risk score 1 (GRS1) combined 11 SNPs and two haplotypes, with effect estimates from previous genome-wide association studies. GRS2 combined 11 SNPs plus 4 SNPs from the haplotypes with coefficients estimated from these prospective cohorts using 10-fold cross-validation. Scores were added to a model adjusted for classic risk factors comprising the Framingham risk score and 10-year risks were derived.

resultsBoth scores improved net reclassification (NRI) over the Framingham score (7.5%, p = 0.017 for GRS1, 6.5%, p = 0.044 for GRS2) but GRS2 also improved discrimination (c-index improvement 1.11%, p = 0.048). Subgroup analysis on men aged 50-59 (436 cases, 603 non-cases) improved net reclassification for GRS1 (13.8%) and GRS2 (12.5%). Net reclassification improvement remained significant for both scores when family history of CHD was added to the baseline model for this male subgroup improving prediction of early onset CHD events.

conclusionsGenetic risk scores add precision to risk estimates for CHD and improve prediction beyond classic risk factors, particularly for middle aged men.

Indexed as

HaplotypesPolymorphism, Single NucleotideAdultAgedAge FactorsCoronary DiseaseFemaleFollow-Up StudiesGenetic MarkersGenome-Wide Association StudyHumansMaleMiddle AgedProspective StudiesRisk FactorsGenetic Markers

Identifiers

PMID22848412
PMCPMC3405046
OpenAlexW2116599117

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.