ArticleOsteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA2013
The health burden and costs of incident fractures attributable to osteoporosis from 2010 to 2050 in Germany--a demographic simulation model.
Article in Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
49 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 100 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review of the indirect and social costs studies in fragility fractures.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2020Pooled it
- Patient education in osteoporosis prevention: a systematic review focusing on methodological quality of randomised controlled trials.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2017Pooled it
- Health-Economic Evaluation of the German Osteoporotic Fracture Prevention Program in Rural Areas (OFRA): Mobility and Falls Prevention Classes, Examination of Bone Health, and Consultation on Safety in the Living Environment.Journal of general internal medicine · 2023Trial
- Effect of an osteoporotic fracture prevention program on fracture incidence in routine care: a cluster-randomized trial.BMC medicine · 2022Trial
- The osteoporotic fracture prevention program in rural areas (OFRA): a protocol for a cluster-randomized health care fund driven intervention in a routine health care setting.BMC musculoskeletal disorders · 2016Trial
- Hip position may be associated with susceptibility to Rommens type IIIa fragility fractures of the pelvis during lateral falls: a quantitative computed tomography-based finite element analysis.BMC musculoskeletal disorders · 2026Article
- Preferences for end-of-life care in geriatric trauma surgery patients with immobilising fractures - a prospective cohort study.BMC geriatrics · 2026Article
- Development of Functional Performance, Bone Mineral Density, and Back Pain Under Specific Pharmacological Osteoporosis Therapy in an Elderly, Multimorbid Cohort.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Outcome analysis after cephalomedullary nail implantation in older adults and elderly patients with per-, sub- or intertrochanteric femur fractures.BMC research notes · 2025Article
- Development of AI-Based Predictive Models for Osteoporosis Diagnosis in Postmenopausal Women from Panoramic Radiographs.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Article
- [Geriatric traumatology-Principles of orthogeriatrics].Chirurgie (Heidelberg, Germany) · 2025Review
- Proximal Femur Fractures: Evaluating the Necessity of On-Call Surgery.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Article
- Bridging the Gap: A narrative review of osteoporosis disability, adipokines, and the role of AI in postmenopausal women.Pakistan journal of medical sciences · 2024Review
- Telerehabilitation: A Solution for Patients After Hip Fracture?Translational medicine @ UniSa · 2024Review
- Orthogeriatric co-management for older patients with a major osteoporotic fracture: Protocol of an observational pre-post study.PloS one · 2023Article
- Substantial changes in fracture rates in German hospitals in 2018 compared with 2002: an epidemiological study.Archives of orthopaedic and trauma surgery · 2022Article
- Perceived feasibility of an occupation-based telerehabilitation intervention for older adults with chronic health conditions in Israel.Hong Kong journal of occupational therapy : HKJOT · 2022Article
- The pattern and trends of disease burden due to low bone mineral density from 1990 to 2019 in China: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.Archives of osteoporosis · 2022Article
- The epidemiology of adult fractures according to the AO/OTA fracture classification.Ulusal travma ve acil cerrahi dergisi = Turkish journal of trauma & emergency surgery : TJTES · 2022Article
- Cost-effectiveness of group-based exercise to prevent falls in elderly community-dwelling people.BMC geriatrics · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
unlabelledTo predict the burden of incident osteoporosis attributable fractures (OAF) in Germany, an economic simulation model was built. The burden of OAF will sharply increase until 2050. Future demand for hospital and long-term care can be expected to substantially rise and should be considered in future healthcare planning.
introductionThe aim of this study was to develop an innovative simulation model to predict the burden of incident OAF occurring in the German population, aged >50, in the time period of 2010 to 2050.
methodsA Markov state transition model based on five fracture states was developed to estimate costs and loss of quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Demographic change was modelled using individual generation life tables. Direct (inpatient, outpatient, long-term care) and indirect fracture costs attributable to osteoporosis were estimated by comparing Markov cohorts with and without osteoporosis.
resultsThe number of OAF will rise from 115,248 in 2010 to 273,794 in 2050, cumulating to approximately 8.1 million fractures (78 % women, 22 % men) during the period between 2010 and 2050. Total undiscounted incident OAF costs will increase from around 1.0 billion Euros in 2010 to 6.1 billion Euros in 2050. Discounted (3 %) cumulated costs from 2010 to 2050 will amount to 88.5 billion Euros (168.5 undiscounted), with 76 % being direct and 24 % indirect costs. The discounted (undiscounted) cumulated loss of QALYs will amount to 2.5 (4.9) million.
conclusionsWe found that incident OAF costs will sharply increase until the year 2050. As a consequence, a growing demand for long-term care as well as hospital care can be expected and should be considered in future healthcare planning. To support decision makers in managing the future burden of OAF, our model allows to economically evaluate population- and risk group-based interventions for fracture prevention in Germany.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.